When Bryce Harper was 15 years old, he was featured on the cover of Sports Illustrated and given a feature on ESPN. Harper had been dubbed the “chosen one,” and for good reason. He had just hit the longest home run in the history of Tropicana Field, home of the Tampa Bay Rays. He was 15 years old and he hit the longest home run in the history of a major league stadium. That’s gross.
Obviously, Harper has lived up to the hype to a degree. He’s a five-time all star and an NL MVP. Last season, he seemed to be on track to win his second MVP in three years until he went down with possibly the most disgusting knee sprain in the history of the universe. He’s been really good. At this point, it seems like he’s on a Hall of Fame track. But are his accomplishments thus far enough to merit the $400m contract he is expected to receive on the open market next winter?
One anonymous GM said, "He is going to get paid. Like, paid paid... Four hundred million is light. It's going to be more than that. If you could sign him to a 15-year contract, you do it. I would say something in the range of $35 million a year, maybe closer to the high 30s. It could approach 40 million dollars a year."
Honestly, this would be a stunning quote without context. If an alien came down from outer space and read Baseball Reference for five minutes, they wouldn’t for a second peg Bryce Harper at over $400m. That’s just crazy. It really makes you appreciate the $110m price tag on J.D. Martinez, who has undisputedly outperformed Harper since breaking on to the scene four seasons ago.
Just throwing around the number $450m doesn’t really do this money justice in my opinion. You have to consider just how far that money could stretch to help a baseball team. With $450m dollars this offseason, you could have signed Eric Hosmer ($174m), J.D. Martinez ($110m), and Jake Arrieta (probably in the neighborhood of $130m). You could have had two bona fide all-stars in the middle of your lineup and a Cy Young candidate as the ace of your staff. You can’t possibly tell me that Bryce Harper, who is injury prone and exceptionally streaky, is worth more to a baseball team than those three guys.
In reality, unless Harper bats over .500, he can’t be more valuable than having those three stars on your team. It’s not a knock on him as a ball player at all--the guy’s awesome, a future hall-of-famer--it’s just literally impossible for one baseball player to be worth what that guy is projected to receive. Consider the stat WAR for a minute. I know it’s nerdy and annoying, but we’re gonna do it anyways, so deal with it. In Harper’s best season he posted a ridiculous 9.9 wins above replacement, good for the best in the NL that season. In that same season, Martinez, Hosmer and Arrieta posted combined WARs of 17.9. Obviously, even an all-time hitter playing at his peak can’t outperform a combination of three major league all-stars.
I think that GMs around the league recognize that but are still willing to overpay for him. In reality, only three teams can afford Harper: the Red Sox, Dodgers and Yankees. Each will be so determined to prevent him from going to the others that they will drive the price through the roof.
By the way, this is kinda awesome. This is what the old days of the rivalry were like. Remember the offseason in 09’ when we were competing for Mark Teixeira? Remember when we used to accuse the Yankees of buying championships?
I can’t wait until the 2019 season rolls around and I either want to burn Bryce Harper at the stake or shove him into the massive void that Tom Brady will leave in my heart when he runs off with Gisele.
If the rivalry isn’t already back (which it is) just wait and watch the bidding war over Bryce Harper.
(photo courtesy of SI.com)
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