The Boston Red Sox have started as one of the hottest teams in league with a 14-2 record, leading not just the AL East but the entire MLB. Adding to the ecstasy in Red Sox nation is the mediocrity of the New York Yankees, who sit 6 games back with a .500 record. Among headlines like “Stanton Isn’t as Good as You Think,” confidence (hubris?) seems to be building among Boston fans, but be warned-- baseball does not reward complacency.
The Red Sox have had a historically impressive start to the season, and, based on current performance, must be considered the favorites for the AL East. No less authority than FiveThirtyEight gives the Red Sox a 65% chance of winning the division. However, it cannot be stressed enough that this is a TINY sample size-- not nearly enough time to accurately assess much of anything. Good teams can have bad starts, as this year’s New York Yankees and Washington Nationals demonstrate. There is a lot of baseball left to play, and the Red Sox have serious competition.
The Red Sox hot start has been highlighted by their exciting series win over the New York Yankees. However, the Yankees remain a very talented team, and they have not been nearly as bad as some would lead you to believe. The Yankees are fourth in the AL in runs scored as well as OPS and are third in AL home runs. The Yankees’ pitching has been a liability so far, 26th in the MLB with a 4.68 ERA, but improvement is a strong probability from a talented Yankees rotation. The Yankees’ potent offense should be especially concerning for the Red Sox, as New York is among the top offensive teams even with key pieces like Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez having truly dreadful starts. Their dry spells aren’t likely to continue, as both are feast or famine type power hitters. When they are bad, it leads to performances like Stanton’s two five-strikeout games this year. However, their hot streaks ultimately even it out, as Sanchez hit 33 home runs last year with a .278 batting average and Stanton hit 59 home runs with a .281 average. Ultimately, the Yankees are a dangerous team, and one won series does not seal the East.
There is also a threat from north of the border. The Toronto Blue Jays have had a strong start and sit only 2.5 games behind the Red Sox. The Blue Jays' success has come from a balanced team, with solid pitching (3.71 cumulative ERA) and offense (88 runs scored). The Blue Jays do have potential injury problems with star third baseman Josh Donaldson landing on the DL, but offseason trades have given them more infield depth to weather that loss.
Overall, the Red Sox have had a tremendous and enjoyable start. However, with so much time left in a very long season, anything remains possible (who knows, the Rays could turn it around? 😬). What is certain is that the Red Sox face strong, talented competition, and comfort and hubris should be far from the minds of Boston players and fans alike.
(Statistics and standings via ESPN and MLB.com)
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