The Boston Red Sox’s major offseason acquisition to upgrade a power-starved lineup was to bring in slugger J.D. Martinez from the Arizona Diamondbacks on a 5-year, $110 million contract. The ultimate verdict on this contract is dependent upon his performance over the entire contract, but having already gotten a good look at Martinez through over a quarter of the season, the sample size is large enough to evaluate what Boston got with him. To keep it short, the Red Sox got what they paid for.
J.D. Martinez burst onto the baseball scene in 2014, and has been an above average hitter since then; known for both his power and high batting average. His last season was particularly impressive, even by his standards; he hit .303 with a 1.066 ops (on base plus slugging- aggregates a batter’s capability to get on base and hit for power), 45 home runs, and 104 runs batted in. While his 2017 season was not totally out of line with his career averages, his stellar performance combined with his age (29 years old) indicated that it could be a career year that was unlikely to be replicated. The potential for decline as well as his recurrent injury history (averaging 130 games played between 2014 and 2017) made some doubt the Martinez contract that allowed him to opt out and promised gaudy average annual values ($23.75 million the first three years!).
Luckily for Red Sox fans who were worried about the investment, Martinez has proven to be exactly as advertised. In 45 games, he has hit .343 with a 1.077 ops, 15 home runs, and 41 runs batted in. He has been the strong power bat that the Red Sox lacked in the middle of their lineup, a spot that was left vacant after the retirement of David Ortiz. In addition, Martinez seems to have easily fit into the clubhouse rhythm. As an added bonus, Martinez is thus far out hitting marquis New York Yankees acquisition Giancarlo Stanton, who has had a rough beginning to say the least; he has hit a mere .263 with 11 home runs. That’s not not terrible, but it’s not in line with expectations, Martinez, or his massive contract.
Though Martinez has been and should continue to hit extremely well, there are warning signs indicating that regression could be imminent. First, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which is essentially a fairly good measure of a batter’s luck, is just over .400, while the league average is around .300. This level of good fortune is unlikely to continue, resulting in a lower (or perhaps simply more average) batting average and on base percentage. Martinez has also struck out 50 times combined with a mere 16 walks. While it is increasingly acceptable for a power hitter like Martinez to strike out with some frequency, this imbalance is cause for some concern and could lead to a painful power outage during a slump at some point.
Overall, the J.D. Martinez signing has been a success, with the Red Sox getting the hitter they needed. Thus far, it appears that this contract will not be added to the pile of Red Sox mistakes, and the $110 million will be regarded as well spent. Even in the aforementioned areas of concern, the quibbles are minor and point merely to some inevitable regression, rather than total collapse. As a result, Red Sox fans can relax on Martinez and instead angst about other aspects of the Red Sox in their cutthroat divisional race.
(Statistics from mlb.com and Baseball Reference)
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