It’s been a rough year for Dustin Pedroia. He opened the season on the disabled list with a knee injury, and then appeared in only three games--going 1-11-- before his frail, ancient frame gave way. Now that Pedey’s on the DL again, the Red Sox are looking at the uncomfortable reality that Pedroia might be yet another big-money gaffe.
Pedroia has been a Red Sox cornerstone since his breakout year in 2007, and was a super hitter from 2007 to 2017. He hit for average, batting over .300 in five seasons, as well as for power, averaging in the mid-teens on home runs. Pedroia was also durable, playing over 100 games in nine seasons. He’s been a productive franchise centerpiece and a big part of several playoff runs, and he should be remembered and respected for that achievement. Unfortunately, time catches up to everyone, and it looks like Pedroia’s age, combined with his injuries, is causing his career to come to a head.
As a disclaimer, I’ll admit that this could be much ado about nothing. Pedroia didn’t seem particularly concerned about this new knee injury as a long-term problem after it happened, and he could come back in mid-June to have a good season. It was just last year that he hit .293 with a .760 OPS in 105 games. However, even in that success, there were warning signs. He still missed approximately 60 games, hit only seven home runs, and had an OPS only 10 points over the league average. A player with declining production who is also dealing with recurring knee injuries in his age-34 season is not exactly a recipe for future success. Unfortunately, the Red Sox are stuck with him for the next three seasons, as he’s guaranteed $16M this year, $15M in 2019, $13M in 2020, and $12M in 2021. 56 million dollars is a lot of money for Pedroia considering his current path of declining play on the field and deteriorating health off it.
This is problematic for the Red Sox, who will need his veteran production in a tight division race with the New York Yankees and in any postseason run. If he’s not healthy or productive, Boston will need--at the very least--Pedroia to provide veteran clubhouse leadership for a team lacking many postseason veterans. Most of Boston’s core is fairly young (Betts, Benintendi, Bradley, Bogaerts), and in a young clubhouse with a rookie manager, the stability Pedroia offers is critical. However, even in the best-case scenario where he provides veteran leadership, Pedroia is $56M of good vibes. Perhaps not the worst of their bad contracts, but far from their best.
(Statistics via Baseball Reference and Spotrac)
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