I have obviously been really high on J.D. Martinez this entire offseason (and even dating back to last summer when he was traded to the Diamondbacks), but I also acknowledge that there are are a lot of question marks surrounding him as he enters his first season here in Boston.
My first concern for Martinez is that he’s never been the guy in the lineup. There’s always been another hitter on the scorecard that teams have had to pitch around, leaving him to clean up on fastballs in the strike zone. In Detroit, he had future Hall of Famer and Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera hitting right in front of him. In Arizona, he had another MVP-caliber player in Paul Goldschmidt to protect him in the lineup. Now, this isn’t to say that Martinez won’t be protected in the Red Sox lineup, because they obviously have a ton of talent, but I think he’s pretty clearly the hitter to fear in that lineup. There isn’t really a consensus in the baseball world regarding what protection in a lineup actually does to player performance, but my belief is that this will hurt Martinez’s production a little. On the flip side, the rest of the position players should benefit from a presence like Martinez in the middle of the order, who will command respect from pitchers around the league.
I also wanna bring up a point that Martinez illuminated when he spoke on a conference call with Red Sox season ticket holders earlier this week. Martinez was grilled on his defense by the callers (savage move by them), and he responded by telling them that he takes a lot of pride in his defense and that, despite what the metrics may lead you to believe, he thinks he’s a very good outfielder. Well, I would have to thoroughly disagree with Mr. Martinez, but I think his responses to these questions make it pretty clear that his general confidence and engagement are tied to his play in the field. More importantly, this attribute of Martinez suggests that struggles in the outfield could lead to a slump at the plate.
Defensive performance being linked to hitting isn’t unique to J.D. Martinez. A perfect example of what bad (or no) defensive play can do to a hitter is Hanley Ramirez. In both 2015 and 2017, Hanley was a pretty terrible batter, posting OPSs of .717 and .750. In the former year, he played atrociously in left field, one of the worst showings in the history of baseball. In the latter, he was the DH who had to try to fill the shoes of the recently retired David Ortiz. We can see a massive difference in his performance and energy in 2016, when he was playing elite first base for the Sox. That season, he was a monster at the plate and seemed to be very passionate and upbeat. Now, I’ll admit that Manager John and the cancerous environment that existed last season certainly had something to do with Hanley’s struggles, but I still don’t want to see the Red Sox take a risk by only DHing Martinez. And they won’t because they probably don’t have that option, as it has been speculated that the delay in the signing of his contract was because Martinez wanted to work in a clause that would force the Red Sox to put him in the outfield.
I’m still really confident in the Martinez signing, but it’s important to consider the red flags and issues that could cause him to struggle in Boston, especially early in his tenure. When players struggle early in big markets (especially in a city where the media tends to think irrationally), it often snowballs and can mentally destroy them. Let’s not have that happen here, please. Too many of my eggs are in the Martinez basket.
(photo courtesy of mllive.com)
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