(Photo by Keith Allison)
A generation ago, the standard baseball rotation was four pitchers, and they would regularly pitch over 200 innings. In recent years, the standard blueprint has been the five-man rotation where pitching 200 innings is a significant accomplishment, not a commonplace occurrence. Now, however, some teams seem to be playing around with the potential of a six-man rotation.
Let’s start with the motivations behind it. The primary reason is injury prevention, as there is an epidemic of injuries and durability problems that is only heightened for pitchers who pitch significant postseason innings. The increase in injuries, first among them Tommy John surgery, is a concerning development with no clear explanation, but it’s very real. In this spring training alone, the following pitchers have suffered some kind of injury preventing them from opening the season healthy: Zack Greinke, Shelby Miller, Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz, Danny Salazar, Dan Straily, Jharel Cotton, Ervin Santana, Jeff Samardzija, and Madison Bumgarner (among many others). Lightening workloads wouldn’t prevent all injuries, but it might reduce them and keep pitchers fresher for the postseason. This has been a primary consideration for teams considering a six-man rotation, especially the Los Angeles Angels, who have an injury prone rotation including Andrew Heaney, Garrett Richards, and Tyler Skaggs, as well as exciting phenom Shohei Ohtani. If a six-man rotation can reduce injuries, then the game would benefit from seeing these pitchers on the mound more than on the disabled list.
Although it seems an interesting possibility, there are several key hurdles. First, pitchers are creatures of habit and many would resist the schedule change. Second, many teams struggle to field five viable starters, let alone six, so many teams wouldn’t benefit (and thus aren’t considering it). Third, if you have an ace like Corey Kluber, Clayton Kershaw, or Chris Sale, do you really want to have him pitch on a schedule that would result in 25 to 50 fewer innings? That could also impact pitchers’ salaries, because teams might not want to pay the same annual rates if pitchers are pitching less. Finally, there is no proof that this rotation would actually serve to prevent injuries. After all, there are several other factors thought to be contributing to the injury outbreak, including higher velocity, pitchers starting at a younger age, and an increase in breaking balls. A six-man rotation wouldn’t change any of these factors, so it might not cause a significant reduction in injuries. Overall, the six-man rotation is a periodically recurring idea that has never seemed to catch on in practice, but this could be the year. So keep an eye on the innovators out west in the Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers to monitor how the six-man experiment goes--it could become the new norm.
(Injury news from mlb.com)
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