(Photo by Keith Allison)
Going into the 2018 MLB season, the AL East is already assumed to be a two-horse race between the back-to-back pennant champion Boston Red Sox and the newly recharged New York Yankees. However, people are forgetting the Toronto Blue Jays, who could very well give both teams a run for their money.
The strength of the Toronto Blue Jays lies in their starting rotation, which includes Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada, Aaron Sanchez, and Jaime Garcia. In 2017, this group fell victim to the injury bug, which prevented them from fulfilling the potential displayed in 2016. As a reminder of just how good the Blue Jays’ pitchers were in 2016, Toronto’s rotation ranked seventh in ERA. For comparison, that was better than the Boston Red Sox and the Cleveland Indians, who went to the World Series that year on the strength of their pitching. In 2017, Happ maintained his performance with an ERA of 3.53, and Stroman improved with an ERA of 3.08. Sanchez has ace potential (3.00 ERA in 2016) but was hindered by blisters in 2017. Last year, Estrada had an ugly 4.98 ERA, but that was almost a full run above his career average and some improvement is in line. As a fourth starter, he is more than passable. Jaime Garcia, meanwhile, is a solid, wily, veteran pitcher who, if healthy, can round out the Jays’ rotation and provide valuable experience. Furthermore, the upside in the Blue Jays’ rotation is significant, as Stroman and Sanchez, 27 and 25 years old respectively, are both due for improvement. If Stroman, Sanchez, Happ, and Garcia maintain or improve their performance while Estrada rebounds at least somewhat, they have a rotation that is competitive with the Yankees and the Red Sox.
The Blue Jays also have the bullpen to at least hold their own with the Yanks and Sox, highlighted by young fireballer Roberto Osuna, who enters his age 23 season already with three productive season in the Toronto bullpen. If reliability can be expected from a reliever, Osuna has earned it. He isn’t alone though, as he is surrounded by a solid group including Ryan Tepera, Dominic Leone, and Danny Barnes, as well as promising prospect Carlos Ramirez. These unfamiliar names are unlikely to match the Yankees three-headed monster of Betances, Chapman, and Robertson, but they’ll be good enough to keep them in games and (with Osuna) close them out.
Similar to their rotation, the question with the Blue Jays’ lineup ultimately comes down to health. The Jays have a solid mix of productive veterans (Curtis Granderson, Kendrys Morales), young guys with upside (Randal Grichuk, Aledmys Diaz), and legitimate stars (Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki). Last year, injuries (especially to Donaldson, Tulowitzki, and second baseman Devon Travis) hampered the Blue Jays offense. The return of important pieces along with increased depth from the additions of Diaz, Granderson, and Grichuk should improve the Jays’ offense.
The Blue Jays clearly face an uphill battle in a tough AL East. However, it is worth considering that projections have them winning 84 games and making the AL Wild Card Game. They wouldn’t have to overperform all that much to win 90+ games and maybe give the Yankees and the Red Sox a run for the pennant. It’s easy to forget about the contenders north of the border, but come September, the Toronto Blue Jays could be right in the mix challenging AL East royalty.
(Statistics from Baseball Reference and mlb.com)
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