Today, Red Sox announcer Dave O’Brien commented that J.D. Martinez “knows better than anyone” that “it’s not about how you start, it’s about how you finish.” This observation also happened to come in the same game that Martinez went 0-4, including a strikeout in the same eighth inning that everyone else on the Sox offense went nuclear.
Before Martinez signed the dotted line for Dombrowski and Co., there were two schools of thought about the aging slugger. One suggested that his flash at the end of last season was a result of some combination of approaching free agency and a flukey power streak; the other believed that Martinez was a bona fide power-hitter and worth every dollar that would be spent on him. Through the first eight games of the season, the Martinez-doubters appear to be on the right side of things. Despite facing incredibly mediocre pitching, Martinez has just two extra-base hits and one home run. It doesn’t help that his teammates are lighting it up--prior to today’s game, Rafael Devers, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Hanley Ramirez were all hitting north of .300, and they combined to go 6-for-14 on Sunday.
Last year, Martinez hit the cover off the ball, clobbering 45 home runs, knocking in 104 runs, and recording a 1.066 OPS. Before 2017, J.D. was also very good at the plate, hitting 30, 33, and 35 home runs from 2014 to 2016. An All-Star in 2015, Martinez has averaged 87.5 RBIs, 32 homers, and an even .300 batting average over the last four seasons. That’s pretty damn good, but what about Martinez’s measly start this season? Should Sox fans be worried?
Hopefully we'll see some more of this...
Over his first 25 games last season, he batted .289 with 10 home runs and 23 RBIs. Okay, so maybe he wasn’t as bad as this year, but he certainly wasn’t producing at the elite clip he displayed in his final 25 games of the year, when he hit .396 with 16 homers and 36 RBIs. Let’s go back another season because, as much as the Red Sox fan in me wants to see 2017-level production, his 2017 numbers don’t represent the player he’s been for most of his career. Through his first 25 starts in 2016, Martinez batted .271 with 3 HRs and 11 RBIs--much closer to what we’re seeing right now. In 2016, he finished the year with a .307 BA, 35 HRs, and 68 RBIs--not too shabby at all. I know we all want to see the 100-RBI, 40-plus-HR hitter from last season, but let’s be realistic: That’s probably not a reasonable expectation.
J.D.’s sluggish start should be a reality check to all of us out here wearing the rose-colored glasses and hoping that he’ll break Barry Bonds’ single-season home run record this year. Martinez is good, but last year is significantly better than we can reasonably expect. At the same time, given his history, there’s no reason to panic about his quiet start at the plate. If nothing else, Red Sox Nation can feel good that Martinez is outperforming a certain pinstriped long-ball hitter who’s 4-for-30 with 14 strikeouts in his last 36 plate appearances.
(Stats via Baseball Reference)
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