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Through the first nine games of the MLB season, Xander Bogaerts was as hot as the Red Sox: He slashed an impressive .368 / .400 / .711, knocked in nine runs, and hit two bombs. Then, in a freak play against the Tampa Bay Rays, Bogaerts went sliding into a dugout barrier, twisting his left ankle and fracturing his talus bone.
As he sat out for the next 15 games, it was easy to look at the nine-game sample size and write off the elite stats as an uncharacteristically hot streak. The sixth-year shortstop has a career OPS of .755 and BA of .284, and he’s been widely criticized for these numbers--many believe that with his 6’1’’, 210-pound frame, Bogey is the prototype of a power-hitting shortstop in today’s MLB and has failed to live up to his potential. With a body like that, the fact that he’s never had a season with more than 21 homers and higher than an .802 OPS could only mean that he’s underachieving. Add that he’s 25 years old (entering the prime of his career), set for unrestricted free agency in 2020, and currently making just over $7M a year, and you have yourself fodder for a nice debate about what Dave Dombrowski should choose to do with the 2016 All-Star over the next two seasons.
Well, in the 20 games since Bogaerts’ return to the Red Sox lineup, he’s picked up right where he left off, slashing .308 / .310 / .488 and trailing only Manny Machado (1.093) and Francisco Lindor (.963) at the shortstop position with an .897 OPS. Sure, he’s experienced minimal regression since his off-the-charts start, but so has Mookie Betts, and Bogey’s numbers over 29 games are pretty damn good.
So, who is Xander Bogaerts? Has he transformed his game and finally become the player we all hoped he’d be? Or is he still the career .284 hitter that struggles to hit the ball out of the ballpark? I think it’s too early in the year to make a major conclusion, but if he finishes in the season as a top-5 shortstop at the plate (in terms of OPS, BA, and RBIs), I’d say he’s starting to fill the mold many set out for him at the beginning of his career. That said, he’s only on pace to hit roughly 22 home runs this year, and the statistics from the rest of his career suggest that these last 29 games don’t truly represent him as an MLB hitter.
I’d love for Bogaerts to turn into the power hitter that everyone (including me) thinks he should be, but I don’t think his performance over the first quarter of the season means anything conclusive. The beautiful thing about baseball is that numbers hold so much weight, and the stats from Bogey’s first five seasons suggest that his current performance is somewhat of an anomaly and that water will eventually find its level. Could he have a career year? Sure, but one great season doesn’t mean he’s a changed player--even Jacoby Ellsbury hit 32 home runs in 2011.
Appreciate Xander’s exceptional performance of late, but don’t necessarily interpret it as a sign that we should pay up for him in 2020. It could be a sign of things to come, but I’m not ready to go that far yet.
(Stats via Spotrac, Baseball Reference, and ESPN)
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