The Boston Red Sox’s historically strong start has utterly enthused Red Sox Nation. In their ecstatic state, some fans have begun coronating the Red Sox as strong favorites for the AL East. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but drawing grand conclusions from a hot start is premature and inviting disappointment. Just remember: Pride goeth before the fall.
Disclaimer: I am a Cleveland Indians fan and have no dog in the AL East fight. I have no particular affinity for the Yankees or Red Sox; I just call it like I see it. That being said, I want to open up by saying I think this will be an exciting, down-to-the-wire division race between two (or even three) very good teams: the Boston Red Sox, the New York Yankees, and (unlikely, but possibly) the Toronto Blue Jays. Of those three, it is extremely close, but the best bet is still the Yankees for several reasons.
The Yankees’ prospects for success are built on a well-balanced team. Offensively, they have a lineup that can’t be called anything other than stacked. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius, and Gary Sanchez are all All-Star-level performers who are joined by productive role players and high upside rookies like Neil Walker, Miguel Andujar, and Gleyber Torres. The beginning of the season has borne this out, as the Yankees offense is third in the AL in home runs and fourth in the AL in runs scored and OPS. This early offensive success has come despite the ice-cold starts of Gary Sanchez and Giancarlo Stanton, much to Boston fans delight. However, their slow starts should be a source of trepidation, if not downright terror, as the the Yankees offense is apparently deep enough to be a top-five run producer with two of its top hitters ice-cold. The Red Sox, meanwhile, lead the MLB in runs, due in part to talent but also to luck.
On the surface, the Red Sox offense looks great with a combined .292 average and an .859 OPS. Those numbers are great-- and unsustainable. The AL averages for last year were .256 and .752 (BA and OPS, respectively), and only the Houston Astros had over a .265 batting average and .800 OPS. The point is this: The Red Sox are due for significant regression. This becomes even clearer if we look at the Red Sox’s luck this year, and we now enter the wonderful world of statistics. Meet BABIP, or batting average on balls in play. This is essentially a measure of how often a batter gets a hit on balls they put in play, thus serving as a decent (though not perfect) measure of luck. The league average BABIP is ~.300. Here are the BABIPs of several key Red Sox hitters:
Mookie Betts .373
Rafael Devers .353
Xander Bogaerts .414
J.D. Martinez .422
Hanley Ramirez .354
Mitch Moreland .367
All of these key Red Sox contributors have had abnormally high BABIPs, which is due for some regression. This is not to say that they will suddenly slump and have terrible years-- they’ll likely have good seasons in line with their track records. However, even with natural variances due to hitting style (i.e. more ground or fly balls), the Red Sox hitters are not going to remain 50 to 100 points over the league average. It simply is not sustainable. Thus, the Red Sox offense is significantly inflated while the Yankees offense is underperforming and still among the top in the league. That leads to my original conclusion: The Yankees offense has a slight advantage over that of the Sox.
On the other side of the equation, the Red Sox have received excellent performances from their pitching while the Yankees pitching struggles. This has again led to jubilant headlines boasting of the prowess of newly-rejuvenated Rick Porcello and David Price. While the Boston pitching has been excellent, there remain serious long-term doubts about its staff. Eduardo Rodriguez, David Price, and Drew Pomeranz are all injury risks. Even when healthy, Rodriguez and Porcello both have career ERAs at or above 4.20-- hardly an encouraging number. Pomeranz, meanwhile, is consistent in his inconsistency (he is also, point of interest, a former top Indians prospect who was the centerpiece of their trade for Ubaldo Jimenez). David Price has given no indication that he can perform as a top-flight starter for a whole season in Boston. On the other hand, the Yankees boast a rotation that has thus far been a liability, with significant question marks around the health and effectiveness of CC Sabathia, Sonny Gray, and Masahiro Tanaka. However, Red Sox fans make the mistake of assuming that their current struggles are indicative of future problems, when progression to their usual solid selves is far more likely. Overall, I’m not crazy about either team’s rotation, but over a 162-game season, the Yankees’ rotation around Luis Severino seems no worse a bet than the unglued stable surrounding Chris Sale.
A huge tipping point between the two division rivals is the bullpen, and this is where the Red Sox get blown out of the water. The Yankees have a smorgasbord of top level relief pitchers: Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, David Robertson, Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, and Adam Warren. The Red Sox have one truly great reliever in Craig Kimbrel. This imbalance is fatal in the modern bullpen era of the MLB, and it means the Yankees have the bullpen depth to survive and thrive through injuries and slumps while the Red Sox bullpen is always on thin ice.
The final reason to bet on the Yankees is that they have serious prospect capital in their top-5 farm system. Meanwhile, between promotions and Dave Dombrowski’s fire sale in trading for Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel (among others), the Red Sox farm is depleted. This means that in the event of underperformance or injury, the Yankees can fill any hole they want. If they need a starting pitcher or two, they can get an ace. The Red Sox cannot. In a game where deadline trades are key, the Red Sox’s hands are tied.
Overall, in the Yankees and Red Sox, I see two closely-matched, exciting teams in one of the best division races in baseball. Enjoy the ride, but the Yankees’ offense and bullpen combined with their youth and prospect capital give them the edge over the maxed-out, hot-starting Red Sox.
(Stats via Fangraphs, ESPN, MLB.com, and Baseball Reference)
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