Even for those who don’t follow running in any way, shape, or form, the Boston Marathon is a big deal. It’s safe to say it’s probably the most famous marathon in the world among everyday people, and every year thousands of people flock to Hopkinton to try to tackle the 26.2. On the professional side, this year’s race is shaping up to be very interesting.
A brief history lesson…
Before the 1980’s, most of the athletic world was still holding on to the notion that only “amateurs” should be allowed to compete at events like the Olympics and most major marathons. This meant that anyone who signed a contract with a shoe company and ran professionally could not compete in these competitions. Obviously, this idea is stupid, and since the beginning of the “professional era,” no American-born runner has won the Boston Marathon. The last American-born male winner was in 1983, and the last American woman won in 1985.
This year’s picks...
This year, there are not one, not two, but FOUR American women who have a very legitimate shot at winning Boston, in addition to one American man who is a 2018 favorite. On the women’s side, it seems more likely than not that an American will win, as the top pack will likely feature Shalane Flanagan, Desi Linden, Molly Huddle and Jordan Hasay.
My prediction? Shalane, followed by Huddle. Since the start of the professional era, Flanagan was the first American woman to win the almost-as-famous New York Marathon when she came on top last fall. She also finished 6th at the 2016 Rio Olympics and is in the shape of her life this year; there’s no reason to believe she’s become less fit since her New York victory. Why Huddle in second? For one, she set the American record in the half-marathon when she beat Jordan Hasay by over a minute (she also happened to be racing with an illness). Now, she’s completely healthy and has been doing the hardest workouts of her life this winter without any sign of injury.
Of course, there are several others who could take the cake as well. As of now, we’re looking at cold temperatures and heavy rain on Marathon Monday, which lead to very unpredictable race conditions--especially in such a long race. Kenya’s Edna Kiplagat, the defending champion, isn’t my pick but is certainly in contention to win. Another foreigner who will certainly be with the lead pack is Aselefech Mergia of Ethiopia. These two also have strong chances at winning, but with most of the top marathoners in the world racing London the next weekend instead, this is looking like the year that an American woman is finally going to win.
On the men’s side, there’s been a lot of talk around American Galen Rupp of the Nike Oregon Project. Despite the fact that Galen and his coach Alberto Salazar are under investigation by the US Anti-Doping Agency and the evidence is stacked against them, Rupp is not my favorite to win. Geoffrey Kirui of Kenya won Boston in 2017 and four months later turned around and won the World Championships, an incredibly quick recovery time for 26.2 miles. For bonus points, Kirui also referred to Rupp as “this guy” in a recent interview and literally asked a reporter who he was. That kind of savagery gets him my vote to win back-to-back Boston Marathons.
Overall, the men’s race is looking a lot closer than last year, as there are five men in addition to Kirui and Rupp who broke 2 hours, 7 minutes in 2017. Last year, there were only four men total who had broken 2:07. Along with Kirui’s contingent of fellow Kenyans, there are two Ethiopians, Lelisa Desisa and Lemi Berhanu, who have won Boston before. They’re both certainly capable of doing it again.
Boston Marathon Predictions:
Women:
1. Shalane Flanagan
2. Molly Huddle
Men:
1. Geoffrey Kirui
2. Galen Rupp
Written by Zander Kessler, Concord MA
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