I love fantasy football. Like millions of other Americans, I begin my research for the upcoming season sometime in July and then become increasingly excited as my draft days approach. Each draft day rivals the first 48 hours of March Madness and Christmas day as my favorite time of the year. It’s an adrenaline-filled experience when the first is pick “on the clock,” and the first round of players promptly flies off the board. So now that I’ve drafted all my teams for the 2018 season, I have the peace of mind to reveal the seven players I love for fantasy this season.
Cam Newton, QB, Panthers
ESPN ADP: QB3
Personal rank: QB3
Cam Newton has never been a terrific pure passer in the NFL (58.5% career completion percentage), but he’s a tremendous fantasy QB due to his rushing ability, which counts for more in fantasy. Last season alone, he had 139 rushing attempts for 754 yards. Moreover, he’s finished fourth or better amongst QBs in each of his seven seasons in carries, yards, and TDs, and has at least 17 red zone rushing attempts in each one of those seasons. Also, it helps that he’s 6-5, 245. Entering this season with Norv Turner, who’s coming over from an overachieving Vikings offense, as the OC along with weapons such as Greg Olsen, Devin Funchess, Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, and Curtis Samuels, “Superman” has the most upside of any QB this year and could very well finish as the top fantasy player at the position.
Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants
ESPN ADP: RB5
Personal rank: RB5
The New York Giants could have drafted Sam Darnold, or Josh Rosen, or Josh Allen with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, but instead they took Saquon Barkley. Barkley crushed it at Penn State, where he averaged 5.7 YPC, 18 rushing TDs, and 1,900.5 scrimmage yards through his last 27 games (two seasons). He followed up those insane collegiate numbers by posting a 4.40 40-yard dash, 29 bench press reps (225 pounds), and a 41” vertical jump: a 99th percentile running back as measured by the Combine. With all his talent and physical dominance, he will have a ton of volume––likely 20-30 touches per game–– and should be the next recent rookie running back to have a stellar first season (see Elliot, Kamara, Hunt, Fournette, and McCaffrey).
Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals
ESPN ADP: RB15
Personal rank: RB13
The young back out of Oklahoma had a relatively disappointing rookie campaign, but don’t let that fool you about his breakout potential this season. Due to off-the-field issues and the presence of long-time starter Jeremy Hill (who is now with the Patriots), Mixon wasn’t given the starting role until the second half of last season. The offense as a whole should improve in Cincinnati as OC Bill Lazor has a full offseason to scheme around Mixon––the return of TE Tyler Eifert, the emergence of deep threat John Ross, and stud WR A.J. Green should also open up some holes for the second-year back. Additionally, the Bengals acquired a new left tackle and center in the offseason to bolster the offensive line. The talent has always been there for Mixon, but he now has a larger opportunity and is surrounded by a better system.
Royce Freeman, RB, Broncos
ESPN ADP: RB17
Personal rank: RB14
The Denver Broncos let C.J. Anderson, a solid running back on whom they relied for many seasons, leave this offseason. Who did they select as his replacement? Royce Freeman. Freeman was drafted in the third round in this past NFL draft, and and has already earned himself the starting role on the team. During his four-year career at Oregon, Freeman rushed for 60 TDs, a school record, and accumulated 6,435 scrimmage yards, the seventh most in college football history. He’s also tough to tackle: Standing at 5’11”, Freeman weighs 230 pounds and forced 51 missed tackles in college while running a 4.54 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. In his three preseason games, he averaged 5.6 YPC and had a rushing TD in each showing, while Booker rushed for a mere 3.7 YPC. Booker hasn’t illustrated that he can be an explosive player, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Freeman becomes the workhorse back within the first three or four games. And for what it’s worth, Broncos running backs seem to do especially well in home games.
Michael Thomas, WR, Saints
ESPN ADP: WR6
Personal rank: WR4
Michael Thomas has quietly been an elite WR in each of his first two seasons. In fact, he has 196 receptions in those two years, and only he and Odell Beckham Jr. have ever caught at least 90 balls in each of their first two pro seasons. Also, he has at least 1,110 receiving yards in both of his NFL campaigns, while sporting the label of top target for future Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees on one of the most electric offenses in the league. One knock on him could be his lack of TDs last year (5), but that was mostly a result of the Saints producing an incredibly efficient running game with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Consequently, Brees had career lows as a Saint in passing TDs (23) and TD% (4.3%). Considering that Brees’ career average with the Saints in passing TDs and TD% are 34 and 5.5% respectively, he is due for some positive regression, and the biggest beneficiary of that will be Michael Thomas. The 6’3”, 212-pound wideout is in for another monster season, and 11 of his 16 games will be in a dome.
Corey Davis, WR, Titans
ESPN ADP: WR29
Personal rank: WR27
Davis had a pedestrian showing as a rookie in the regular season, but he began the year injured and had awful quarterback play from Marcus Mariota, who threw more interceptions (15) than touchdowns (13). In the playoffs however, Davis was featured like the fifth overall pick that he was, as he had nine receptions for 98 yards and two TDs on a 23.1% target share over two postseason games. With Richard Matthews coming off a knee injury, Davis figures to be the No. 1 WR on the team and the second pass catching option behind tight end Delanie Walker. Plus, new head coach Mike Vrabel and OC Matt Lafleur (who is coming from the Los Angeles Rams) should institute a more dangerous Titans offense.
Mike Williams, WR, Chargers
ESPN ADP: WR63
Personal rank: WR42
Williams was the second wide receiver taken in the 2017 draft behind the aforementioned Davis, and like him, Williams had a tough rookie season. Back and hamstring issues along with the impressive play of Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Tyrell Williams, and Travis Benjamin hampered his opportunity to shine in the Chargers offense, but this year, he enters the season injury-free and there will be one less mouth to feed with Hunter Henry out for the season. Therefore, Williams should see his fair share of red zone targets, and he could pull a lot of them down with his 6’4”, 220-pound frame and 33” vertical leap. If he emerges as Philip Rivers’ second passing option, then 800+ yards and 8-12 TDs could be in store.
Late-round WR flyers that I like:
Kenny Golladay: ESPN ADP–WR51; personal rank–WR47
Michael Gallup: ESPN ADP–WR55; personal rank–WR 52
Courtland Sutton: ESPN ADP–WR66; personal rank–WR56
James Washington: ESPN ADP–undrafted; personal rank–WR65
Ryan Grant: ESPN ADP–undrafted; personal rank–WR66
Geronimo Allison: ESPN ADP–undrafted; personal rank–WR71
(Stats via ESPN, Pro Football Focus, Football-Reference, College Football-Reference)
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