(Photo by Lisa Gansky)
It feels like Don Sweeney and the Boston Bruins can do no wrong. Like the Midas touch, every player that puts on a B’s sweater seems to outperform all expectations. Many (including myself) doubted some of Sweeney’s deals at the deadline, yet every single one has paid off in one way or another. When Ryan Donato was signed to an entry-level contract, people thought he’d take some time to adjust to the speed of the NHL game--nope, he’s already looking like a legit top-six NHL forward. Bergeron, Krejci, and Donato centering the first three lines? Look out.
However, there is one glaring weakness that even Thursday’s 4-2 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning couldn’t cover up: Tuukka Rask. Ever since he was sidelined for a mysterious lower body injury, Tuukka hasn’t looked like the same borderline Vezina candidate that he was in the middle of the season. Between his benching early in the year and the announcement of his lower body ailment, Rask recorded an impressive .928 save percentage and a 23-4-2 record. Comparatively, in his last eight games, Tuukka has a .915 save percentage and has surrendered four or more goals in three of his efforts. Simply put, he hasn’t been the same player that he was early on, and the Bruins probably shouldn’t expect him to be going forward.
If the Bruins are to seriously contend for the Cup, they’re gonna need Tuukka to be fantastic… or are they? Starting in 2011 (when Tim Thomas stood on his head to bring Lord Stanley back to Beantown), the last seven Stanley Cup-winning goaltenders have posted playoff save percentages of .940, .946, .932, .911, .924, .923, and .937--an average of .930. For comparison, the last seven Vezina winners have averaged a .931 save percentage. Please, try to understand the magnitude of that statistic: On average, the goalies of the last seven Stanley Cup winners have performed at the level of the best goalie in the entire league.
Vezina vs. Stanley Cup Winning Goalies:
Tally: Vezina - 2, SC - 4
So now you’re thinking that Tuukka has to play out of his mind if the Bruins want a shot at the Cup, but that’s not entirely true. For example, in 2011, Jonathan Quick put up a .911 playoff save percentage, but he was playing behind the defense of Drew Doughty, Alec Martinez, Willie Mitchell, Jake Muzzin, and two-way magician Anze Kopitar. These five combined for a +90 in the regular season, with Kopitar chipping in a team-high +34. How does Boston stack up? The Bruins’ top five defensemen in terms of plus/minus (McAvoy, Chara, Grzelcyk, and Kevan Miller) and their best two-way forward (Bergeron) currently have a +96 altogether.
Here’s the bottom line: According to recent history, if the B’s want to make a run, either Tuukka will have to rediscover his midseason form (doubtful), or the Bruins defense will have to play at an extremely high level. What’s my guess? I predict that the latter will occur, and this B’s defense is significantly better than the Kings in 2013. Regardless, Tuukka is gonna have to pick it up. No more four- or five-goal games; in the playoffs, he has to be locked in.
I still believe that we’ll see Boston in the Cup Finals, but, in light of Tuukka’s deficiencies, everyone should remember the importance of goaltending in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. If Tuukka’s play resembles tepid bathwater, Boston will be lucky to make it past the second round.
(Stats courtesy of Hockey Reference)
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