Sometimes, pro sports leagues become lopsided when one conference is stronger than another. Recently in the NFL, we’ve seen that exact phenomenon where the NFC has become unequivocally better than the AFC. However, with a new season on the (distant) horizon, some curious NFL fans are wondering if this trend will unravel or reverse itself. The short answer is that it will not––this imbalance will either stay the same or get worse. Here’s why:
During the 2017-18 season, the margin of difference in win percentage between the AFC and NFC was somewhat staggering; the combined win percentage of all AFC teams was .464 compared to the NFC’s .535. The reason both conferences aren’t .500 is because one-fourth of the games played in the NFL season are interconference (AFC team vs. NFC team). In fact, in 2017, the NFC won 41 of the 64 head-to-head matchups against the AFC, the largest margin of victory since the first year of the merger (1970).
However, if you’re either a habitual contrarian or just a massive AFC fan (for some odd reason), you could look at these numbers and scoff. It was just a down year. The AFC had a higher win percentage against the NFC two seasons ago. Unfortunately, it was a down year, but it’s likely that the trend will continue.
Heading into the 2018 season, many fans and analysts would agree that the majority of the top teams in the NFL reside in the NFC. Actually, outside of the Patriots and Steelers, ESPN’s top four teams in the NFL after the draft are from the NFC. Outside of New England and Pittsburgh, the AFC is essentially a wasteland.
I will never consider Jacksonville an elite team as long as Blake Bortles is the quarterback, the Chiefs could be good if Patrick Mahomes is decent, the Chargers are always just okay, and the Colts could be alright if Andrew Luck can figure out how to throw a football again. Other than that, Cleveland and Houston have some promise for the future, but essentially none of these teams rival the strength of Philadelphia, Minnesota, New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta, and Los Angeles.
Additionally, the top two teams in the AFC are both led by quarterbacks who are on the precipice of retirement. Without a true successor, it appears that New England will falter after years of dominance as soon as Brady retires, and Pittsburgh will soon have to find a replacement for Big Ben. As soon as these two teams meet their match in Father Time, it’s probable that another couple AFC teams take their place, but you’d be hard pressed to find another quarterback/coach combination that is capable of being as dominant as the tandem in New England has been.
Overall, the NFC teams are mostly filled with more talented and––more importantly––younger leaders than those in the AFC, and it’s evident in the lopsidedness of the win totals. My prediction is that eventually the imbalance will even out (and may even tilt the other way), but don’t expect to see a vast improvement in the next few seasons.
(Statistics via USA Today and ESPN)
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