It’s one of the best times of the year to be a sports fan; both the NBA and NHL playoffs are in full swing, and as a Bostonian, life is even better--spring has sprung, the Bs and Celts are making playoff runs, and the Sox have the best record in baseball. Recently, I’ve heard people raving about how good the NBA Playoffs have been, citing the competitiveness of many individual games and the occurrence of two first-round upsets.
In the last 5 to 10 years, the NBA has struggled to put compelling playoff matchups on TV, largely due to the formation of super teams and consequent talent imbalance in the Association. Last year, it was worse than ever, as there were just two upsets throughout the entire playoffs and an NBA champion that lost one game the whole postseason. I’m certainly not complaining about what we’ve seen so far, but despite the seemingly high level of parity in this year’s playoffs, there appears to be another playoff problem: Home teams have a massive advantage.
Maybe you say this is just part of the game and that it’s not a big deal, but let me give you some stats from the 2018 NBA Playoffs that might surprise you:
In 6- and 7-game first-round series (in other words, series featuring teams that were supposedly well-matched), the home team won 22 out of 26 games (almost 85%)
In the second round so far, home teams are 4-1
So you say the same principle applies in all sports, but…
Comparatively, NHL home teams won 10 out of 25 first-round games in 6- and 7-game series (40%)
NHL home teams are 5-6 in the second round so far (probably 5-7 after tonight’s Bruins game)
A 22-4 record is pretty significant, and those numbers come from matchups that are allegedly “competitive”--each one went at least 6 games. As a result, you get series like Bucks vs. Celtics, where Boston blows Milwaukee out by 14 points in Game 2 (in Boston) and then loses by 24 in Game 3 (in Milwaukee). And I’d be more than willing to say that the fluctuating scores are just a result of better play by one team or the other, but the aforementioned home record is just so damning.
So what’s the consequence of this? Most importantly, the outcomes become extremely predictable. I explained on last night’s broadcast that I believe the Celtics-Sixers series is going the distance and that the Celtics will ultimately be victorious because they have home-court advantage in Game 7, even though the Sixers are a better team overall. Therein lies a second unfortunate byproduct: As opposed to the Stanley Cup Playoffs, where all regular season stats and results essentially go out the window, the better team in the NBA Playoffs sometimes loses because of regular season record. To me, overvaluing regular season performance is to the detriment of the viewing experience. Sure, home-court/field/ice advantage should matter, but the better team should win in the playoffs, no matter the sport.
I’m not sure that there’s a feasible solution to this problem, but it’s possible that more even-handed officiating could help. NBA home teams usually get more generous calls from the referees than hometown squads in any other sport, so a concerted effort by the NBA might make a difference.
Generally speaking, the best players/teams can maintain their home performance on the road (the Rockets’ regular season road record was actually better than their win-loss tally at home), but as is viewable by the home-road splits in this year’s NBA Playoffs, the ability to do so is not the norm. Where does this leave us? With an overvalued home-court advantage and predictable playoff results. So to all of you NBA fans who claimed this postseason as the beginning of true parity, think again.
(Stats via Hockey Reference)
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