The votes for this season’s NBA awards were final in mid-April. The race was over and the competition complete, despite that the NBA postseason continued into June. Tomorrow evening, the NBA will hold its second annual awards ceremony, where––among other honors––the Most Valuable Player, Rookie of the Year, and Defensive Player of the Year will be doled out to deserving athletes around the Association.
Although it’s certainly no foregone conclusion that James Harden has the MVP on lock, the combination of his league-leading 30.4 points per game and the Houston Rockets’ NBA-best 65-17 record will likely give him the edge over fellow superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
An arguably more interesting race is that for the NBA Rookie of the Year, especially considering the absurd level of first-year production we saw in the 2017-18 campaign. Last season, Malcolm Brogdon won the honor, averaging 10.2 points and 4.2 assists, but this year, Kyle Kuzma’s 16.1 points and 6.3 rebounds weren’t enough to even put him in the conversation.
Before analyzing this year’s finalists, it’s necessary to establish several important facts:
1. According to NBA rules and whether you like it or not, Ben Simmons is eligible to win the award. (I have yet to encounter a compelling argument as to why he shouldn’t be considered, but that’s another discussion for another day.)
2. Rookie of the Year is a regular season award. Regardless of postseason performance, the votes were cast based on production through the NBA’s 82-game regular season, and the analysis should follow accordingly.
3. ROY is based on this year’s performance, not the potential of a particular player to be great in the future––probably one reason that Lonzo Ball wasn’t a finalist.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at how the three ROY candidates stack up against one another.
*Mitchell only attempted 11 3-pointers this season
Analysis
The narrative for each of these players is pretty clear: 1) While he was an atrocious shooter, Ben Simmons filled up the box score on a nightly basis, breaking Magic Johnson’s rookie triple-double mark (7) and coming just 0.2 rebounds per game shy of averaging a triple-double in the Sixers’ 16-0 finish to the regular season. 2) Despite his inefficiency, Donovan Mitchell put the ball in the bucket, leading an underrated Jazz team to the playoffs and beyond. 3) For much of the year, Jayson Tatum was not the main producer on a stacked Boston roster, but he nonetheless remained wildly efficient, shooting at an incredible 43.4% from beyond the arc––good for a top-10 finish in that category.
Analysis
These numbers bear out the fact that Ben Simmons was, of the three candidates, the best defensive player, the most selective with his decisions to attack the basket, and generally the most valuable to his team. In considering these numbers as well as the first set of statistics, the only legitimate knock on Simmons is his horrific jumpshot, but he was selective (only attempted 11 3-pointers, eight of which were “heaves” from beyond half court––presumably as time was expiring in the quarter), and his offensive output is undeniable (see above). Sure, this lack of perimeter attack could haunt him in the future, but for this season, his offensive approach rendered him extremely successful. His balanced, unselfish attack––not to mention his ability to explode to the rack––combined with his solid defense make him the most deserving of this year’s ROY honor.
Those who make the case for Donovan Mitchell often point to his lack of support, but it’s time to debunk that myth. Mitchell had six––yes, you read that right, six––other players who averaged double-digit points, and among those teammates was Defensive Player of the Year candidate Rudy Gobert and sharpshooter Joe Ingles, whose 3-point percentage was dead even with Klay Thompson’s (44.0%). The Jazz’s opponent points per game was also first in the league, an achievement that takes much more than the talent of one offensively-gifted rook. Mitchell trailed Simmons in assists, rebounds, blocks, steals, Fg%, eFg%, PER, win shares, VORP, and defensive rating. If the only criterion for this award were scoring prowess, Mitchell would have it in the bag, but unfortunately for him, that’s not the case.
As for Tatum, many people’s opinions have been colored by his unbelievable playoff performance––and rightfully so. The fact of the matter is that he trails both Mitchell and Simmons in points, assists, steals, PER, VORP, and USG%. To that point, the only categories in which he leads both Mitchell and Simmons are Fg%, Ft%, and 3P%, implying that he’s simply a better shooter than the two. Given his skill set, Jayson Tatum might have the brightest future of the three finalists, but his production this season wasn’t on the level of Mitchell’s or Simmons’. One could certainly suggest that if Kyrie had been injured earlier on, Tatum’s volume numbers would have been better, but that sort of argument would launch us into the realm of speculation.
For Celtics fans like myself, the harsh reality is that Ben Simmons was the best rookie this season. Sure, he had a solid supporting cast, but so did the other two candidates. Despite the fact that he would have performed better on a more talented team, nobody is crying over Kyle Kuzma’s absence from this list. Simmons and Mitchell were neck-and-neck going into the home stretch of the season, but when Ben put the Sixers on his back en route to 16 straight wins, he pulled away as the favorite.
Would the results have been different if the postseason were considered as well? Yeah, probably. But unfortunately, that’s not the topic of today’s debate. Ben Simmons is the 2017-18 Rookie of the Year.
(Stats via Basketball-Reference, ESPN, and FOX Sports)
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