Some saw LeBron’s move to the Lakers coming last year. When Kyrie Irving requested to be traded from the Cleveland Cavaliers––and then was dealt––following a Finals loss to the Kevin Durant-led Warriors, some people believed James’ decision to go to L.A. was inevitable. In the months leading up to the start of free agency, more events unfolded that foreshadowed Los Angeles as LeBron’s next landing spot: DeMar DeRozan opted to re-sign with the Toronto Raptors instead of joining his hometown Lakers last summer, the Cavs reconfigured their team with some controllable youngsters in deadline deals (and were swept by Golden State in the Finals), James’ son Bronny committed to play high school basketball outside of L.A. with Sierra Canyon, NBA executives commented that LeBron’s indecision was “all theater,” and Joel Embiid tweeted this:
But regardless of who saw it coming, LeBron James, one of the greatest basketball players ever, is now a Los Angeles Laker, NBA’s newest dynasty added a four-time All-Star, and the NBA landscape has shifted tremendously. Considering the moves that have happened thus far, who are the winners and losers at this point in free agency?
Winner: LeBron James
Whether you like this decision or not, LeBron wanted to be a Laker, and now he is one. James is a man that demands the spotlight and obsesses over the public’s perception of his image, so being in Hollywood as a member of the second greatest franchise in NBA history will only elevate and expand his fame and legacy. He’ll have the opportunity to guide Lonzo Ball, crafting him into the transcendent point guard that Magic Johnson envisioned him to be.
Most of all, L.A. is the perfect place to end his incredible basketball career. In fact, he’s been arguably the most polarizing athlete of this generation: Drafted No. 1 overall by his hometown team out of St. Vincent-St. Mary high school, he entertained northeast Ohio for seven seasons before infamously taking his talents to South Beach. After winning two championships in a four-year stretch with Miami, he returned home and led the Cavs to four consecutive Finals appearances and one championship in 2016. Now that he’s a 14-time All-Star, four-time NBA MVP, and three-time NBA Finals MVP, LeBron can comfortably ride off into the sunset of his prime in Los Angeles––that is until he decides to enter his post-basketball life as a businessman and potential movie star.
Winner: Los Angeles Lakers
As a franchise, the Lakers have now acquired another legendary player. It’s amazing how many they’ve had: Kareem, West, Wilt, Magic, Shaq, Kobe, Baylor, and now LeBron. That said, they don’t have all the pieces to win a championship this upcoming season. Obviously, having LeBron thrusts them into the conversation as one of the contenders, but unless Magic can trade for Kawhi Leonard before the 2019 postseason, they’ll likely bow out in the second or third round of the playoffs. If their young core remains on the team and can show significant development, the Lakers will have a shot at upending the Warriors down the road, but not this year. However, acquiring Kawhi might just put them in the conversation with Golden State and Houston.
ESPN’s invaluable NBA insider Adrian Wojnarowski tweeted the following after LeBron signed with Los Angeles:
The Spurs seem to be in no rush to trade their superstar, which may be better for the Lakers since they could potentially sign Leonard next summer––giving up fewer assets than they would in a trade. I strongly believe that a LeBron/Kawhi/Lonzo-led Lakers team would give L.A. a real chance to win a championship. In the meantime, the signings of Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, JaVale McGee, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are a bit head-scratching. However, having Rondo and LeBron surrounding Lonzo will do wonders for the eldest Ball brother’s development as an NBA point guard. At the end of the day, it’s likely that LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers will win at least one ring during their marriage; it’s just a question of how soon.
Loser: Cleveland Cavaliers
19, 21, 24, 33. Those are the Cavs’ win totals when LeBron played for the Heat. This time around, they may not be as horrific… or maybe they will. The Eastern Conference is far less talented than the Western Conference right now, so these Cavs should get to at least 30 wins next season if Kevin Love, a proven star, doesn’t get traded. With or without Love, Cleveland is seemingly invested in one of my favorite draft prospects: ‘Bama point guard Collin Sexton. Additionally, they have talented young players in Larry Nance Jr., Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson, and Cedi Osman. However, potentially harmful characters like J.R. Smith and Tristan Thompson and washed-up veterans like Kyle Korver and George Hill will be net negatives moving forward. Simply put, there is little upside in the short term for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Sorry, Prospect Jake and Cleveland sports fans, but I’d focus your energy on the Browns and Indians for now.
Winner: Golden State Warriors
Golden State is the top dog in the NBA. They re-signed Kevin Durant and more recently inked Boogie Cousins to a one-year, $5.3M deal. Thus, Golden State’s team dynamic just got a little more interesting, and this experiment has the opportunity to be very successful as long as Cousins is eating up down low and hitting threes off great spacing. Though this is the more probable outcome, there is certainly a world in which things don’t go as well. Cousins, a 270-pound big man, is coming off of an achilles tear that could easily flare up again. Plus, considering their personalities, he and Draymond Green may not like each other for too long. Though Draymond or Klay may be forced to leave in a year or two, they can run the championship push back again this year while adding Cousins to the mix, who, by the way, will be getting paid roughly as much as Aron Baynes.
Losers: Other Western Conference Superteams (i.e., Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder)
In Houston, Chris Paul was handed a massive 4-year, $160M deal. Consequently, the Rockets will owe Harden, Paul, and Ryan Anderson a ton of money over the next couple of seasons, which makes them less flexible to improve their roster. Thus far, they’ve already let Trevor Ariza walk to Phoenix and they may or may not be able to re-sign their young center, Clint Capela. With Paul aging quickly and playing a lot of minutes, the Rockets are essentially in “win-now” mode. As for Oklahoma City, the Thunder figure to be way over the cap after re-signing Paul George. They owe him, Westbrook, Carmelo, and Steven Adams almost a combined $120M this upcoming season, so it’s in their best interest to dump Melo sooner rather than later considering his rapid regression and inefficiency. In fact, their projected payroll (including luxury tax) this season is $300 million. For the Thunder and Rockets, the pressure to win immediately just increased; the window is shrinking due to age, contracts, internal frustrations, and other teams’ improvement.
Winners/Losers: Other Western Conference Teams
The Western Conference is loaded with talent. Take a look:
But it’s not just the top talent in this half of the NBA; it’s also the depth that makes a Lakers title appearance a bit more challenging. To me, 14 of the 15 Western Conference teams have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs (all but the Sacramento Kings). All eight playoff teams from this season––Houston, Golden State, Portland, Oklahoma City, Utah, New Orleans, San Antonio, and Minnesota––will have at least a decent chance at returning. What's more, the non-playoff teams (except for the Kings) have all drastically improved since the conclusion of the regular season: The Lakers have LeBron and potentially Kawhi, the Nuggets are returning their talented, young core and may utilize Michael Porter Jr. in spots, the Clippers look to stay competitive with a bunch of quirky players, the Mavericks have acquired teenage phenom Luka Doncic along with DeAndre Jordan, the Grizzlies will return Mike Conley and Marc Gasol while also adding Jaren Jackson Jr. to the mix, and the Suns have formed a nice young nucleus with Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton, Josh Jackson, Marquese Chriss, Mikal Bridges, and Elie Okobo. The road to the playoffs is now more difficult for all those other teams, but on the flip side, the road to the Finals is extraordinarily hard for LeBron and the Lakers. Instead of “easy” road wins in the East like Orlando and Atlanta, LeBron will now have to do regular-season battle in tough environments like Utah, San Antonio, and Denver.
Winners: Boston Celtics… and the Rest of the East
It seems only fitting that the two teams that won the most––besides the Warriors––from the free agency signings so far are the Lakers and the Celtics: the two most storied franchises in NBA history. With LeBron and his eight straight finals appearances out West, the Celtics are the clear-cut favorites to make it out of the weak Eastern Conference. Though Raptors fans must be thrilled that they won’t be eliminated early in the playoffs by a LeBron James team for at least the next three years, they don’t have the roster to compete with Boston––or even Philly for that matter. Barring a trade that would send Kawhi to the Sixers, the Celtics are in a luxurious position atop the east for several seasons. For at least the next few seasons, Boston will be back in the Finals to square off against the surviving juggernaut from the West. And what would be better than a Kyrie Irving-led Celtics squad against a LeBron James-led Lakers team?
(Stats via Basketball-Reference)
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