The Boston Celtics persevered through great adversity this season to finish with 55 wins, good for the second seed in the Eastern Conference. Brad Stevens’ squad is rewarded with a punishing first-round matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks. It’s going to be an entertaining series; here’s what you need to know going in.
Season Series: In the regular season series, the Bucks and Celtics were even at 2-2. However, their last contest was the only game without Celtics star guard Kyrie Irving. Boston lost that game 106-102.
Season Storylines:
Milwaukee: The Bucks continue to boast one of the more talented young rosters in the NBA, returning last year’s playoff core of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Malcolm Brogdon while adding proven scorer Jabari Parker (back from injury) and wily veteran guard Eric Bledsoe (via trade). Despite talent across their roster, the Bucks finished with a relatively disappointing 44 wins and fired head coach Jason Kidd midway through the season. For Milwaukee, this postseason is a test of whether their talent will translate into results.
Boston: The Celtics entered this year looking to take a huge step forward and contend for a championship, but injuries quickly intervened. Within a few minutes of the season’s start, Gordon Hayward went down with a gruesome ankle injury that ended his season. Nonetheless, the Celtics went on to finish second in the Eastern Conference by a wide margin. However, Boston now enters the playoffs missing not only Hayward, but also star offseason trade acquisition Kyrie Irving, who led the Celtics to the number two seed with 24.4 points per game on 49.1% shooting. Brad Stevens’ squad is also down defensive dynamo Marcus Smart (though he may return by April 27) and productive first-year big man Daniel Theis. With injuries piling up, the Celtics have leaned heavily on rookie Jayson Tatum, second-year wing Jaylen Brown, and Terry Rozier, who have all been very productive. Going into this postseason, the question is whether Boston can really compete without its top two stars.
Series Preview:
The Boston Celtics are a very talented and extremely well-coached team. The playoffs, however, are dominated by star power, and the Celtics are short on it. Their only remaining All-Star is big man Al Horford, who is very accomplished but has proven to be unable to carry a team in the postseason. In 92 playoff games, he’s averaged only 13.4 points per game, though he did slightly better with 15.1 points per game during last year’s playoff run. This means that the Celtics will have to rely on their young trio of Rozier, Tatum, and Brown to do the bulk of the scoring, which is an uncertain prospect at best. While all three have shown flashes of stardom, none of them are averaging over 15 points a game. In the postseason, teams have to have someone who can get a crucial bucket in crunch time, and it’s not clear who that guy is for the Celtics--or if they have a clutch shot-maker at all.
The Celtics also have questions about depth, as at least two of their starters (Rozier and one of Brown/Tatum) were not expected to start at the beginning of the season. Having also lost both Smart and Theis to injury, the Celtics bench should be a cause for concern, especially compared to a Bucks bench, which boasts proven options like former NBA champion Matthew Dellavedova and talented scorer Jabari Parker. Ultimately, the Celtics may struggle to score and keep up when the starters rest.
Meanwhile, the Bucks bring strong starpower from The Greek Freak along with Bledsoe and Khris Middleton, who average 26.9, 17.8, and 20.1 points per game respectively. Each one of those players score more points per game than anyone who is healthy on the Celtics roster. Surrounding those three are solid role players like Malcolm Brogdon, Jabari Parker, and Tony Snell, as well as playoff veterans like Matthew Dellavedova. For the Bucks, the questions lie on the defensive side of the ball, where they rank 17th in defensive ranking and have at times shown a total lack of engagement. They have the talent with players like Giannis, Middleton, and Bledsoe, but potential and reality are not the same thing, and the Bucks defense remains an uncertain commodity.
Prediction:
This series is likely to be very close and exciting, so I recommend tuning in, and if my prediction is wrong that won’t shock me at all. The Celtics are lead by perennial Coach of the Year candidate Brad Stevens and boast an extremely talented young team. However, Brad Stevens is not on the court, and while he can get a lot out of his team, there are limits to what any coach can achieve with a given roster. The Celtics are very inexperienced and heavily thinned by injuries, while the Bucks have a strong mix of young stars and playoff-experienced contributors. The Bucks also sport one of the NBA’s top young talents in Giannis Antetokounmpo, who can and regularly has taken over games this season. While Al Horford, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown may be very talented, they are not at Giannis’ level, and the stats reflect that. The Celtics’ playoff lineup has no one who, going in, is capable of taking over a playoff game the way The Greek Freak can. The Bucks are deeper, more experienced, and have more top-to-bottom talent. I therefore predict that the Milwaukee Bucks will win a close series over the Boston Celtics.
(Not that who wins this series matters, because LeBron James is coming to smash the rest of the Eastern Conference.)
(Stats via ESPN, Basketball Reference, and NBA.com)
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