On April 18, 2017, the 8-seeded Chicago Bulls came into Boston and defeated the 1-seeded Celtics to take a 2-0 series lead. All the momentum was with the Bulls; they were primed for the upset. However, Rajon Rondo fractured his thumb in that Game 2 victory, costing him the rest of the series, a series that the Celtics would wind up winning in 6.
Just over a year removed from that event, those two teams look almost completely different: The Bulls moved on from Rondo, Butler, Wade, and Mirotic, and as all Celtics fans know, Boston started the 2017-2018 season with just 4 of the 15 players from that 1-seeded 2016-2017 team. But in the first two games of that series, Rondo was the engine for Bulls. With the way he had dominated the tempo in those two matchups, many thought that Chicago would’ve won the series if he hadn’t been injured.
In a first-round series between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Portland Trail Blazers this year, Rondo once again activated “Playoff Rondo.” The Pelicans handily swept the Blazers and have been off for a week since. Tomorrow night, following the much anticipated Boston-Bucks Game 7 from the TD Garden, New Orleans will take on the Warriors in Oracle Arena to kick off second round action. Obviously, the Pelicans are tremendous underdogs in this series (currently 9.5 point underdogs for Game 1), but they do have a fighting chance against the defending NBA Champions. Here’s what has to happen for the Pelicans to pull it off:
Anthony Davis plays better than Kevin Durant
When the Warriors choked in the 2016 NBA Finals to the Cavaliers, they didn’t have the best player on the floor, LeBron James. In fact, one could argue that Kyrie Irving was also the second-best player on the floor, so the Warriors had just one of the top three players in that series. In an effort to bolster the already absurd starpower on the Golden State roster, the Dubs signed Kevin Durant that offseason. Despite the outrage that his signing caused, it has been a lift for the Warriors to have the best player on the court in almost every scenario. In this series though, The Brow could be the best player, especially if he carries over his insane production from the first round. As both players are likely to be named to the First Team All-NBA and First Team All-Defense this year, the one who outperforms the other will dictate the success of his respective team. And quite frankly, nobody on either team can guard KD or AD (yes, that means I don’t think Draymond can guard Davis)
Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo defend Curry and Thompson well and attack them on offense
Stephen Curry missed 31 games in the regular season with multiple ankle injuries and is still recovering from the latest one. As a 2x NBA MVP, he’s obviously one of the top players in the league, but the strong, disciplined defense of Holiday and the smart, instinctive defense of Rondo makes me think that Curry will be limited in both scoring and assisting if and when he returns to play. Based on the size matchups, it’s presumed that Rondo will cover Curry and that Holiday will guard Thompson, but switching it up occasionally will create a level of unpredictability, potentially disrupting the Warriors free-flowing offensive scheme. On the flip side, these guys have what it takes to effectively attack Golden State’s starting backcourt. Rondo averaged 8.2 assists per game in the regular season, but as “Playoff Rondo” against the Blazers, he averaged 13.3 APG in NOLA’s sweep. With his craftiness and large hands, Rondo can pick apart the Warrior’s pick-and-roll defense, especially with Curry guarding him--Rajon and AD running that two-man game will be tough for Golden State to defend. Meanwhile, Holiday has a set of quick change-of-direction moves that he utilized to torch any Blazer defender in round one, a skill set that is extremely valuable while matching up against an elite defender like Klay Thompson. Thompson, who has struggled defending James Harden in the past due to his ability to quickly change direction and get Thompon on his hip, will have his hands full with Jrue Holiday.
The Pelicans offense outperforms the Warriors defense
In the regular season, the Pelicans offense was just as good as the Warriors defense: New Orleans ranked 4th and 10th in eFG% and offensive rating, while the Warriors ranked 4th and 9th in the NBA in opponent eFG% and defensive rating. Thus far in the postseason, each team has stepped up these statistics: Despite the small sample size, the Pelicans are 1st in the 2018 Playoffs in eFG% and offensive rating, shooting 59.3% (eFG%) and averaging 118.6 points per 100 possessions. Not to be one-upped, the Warriors in the playoffs are 1st in opponent eFG% at 46.2% and have let up a mere 101.3 points per 100 possessions. Clearly, the offensive output from Anthony Davis will be a massive indicator of how these team stats will play out, but the secondary scoring from Jrue Holiday, Nikola Mirotic, Rajon Rondo, E’Twaun Moore, and Ian Clark will be vital for the Pelicans to have a shot at grabbing four out of seven games.
With the Pelicans entering the series as large--but not overwhelming--underdogs, NOLA will probably need to execute at least two of these hypotheticals in order to extend the series to six or seven games, and all three of them to win the series. I think that the Warriors will win, but the NBA fan in me really wants this to unfold as a high-paced, competitive series that stretches six or seven games.
(Stats via ESPN and Cleaning the Glass)
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