The Boston Celtics entered the playoffs depleted, having lost their two best players, Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving, and leading many people (including myself) to count them out. However, this young team has stepped up, and Brad Stevens has shown his genius by leading the Celtics on a run that is improbable, impressive… and over.
To address a few things at the outset: I am a Cleveland Cavaliers fan, so not a completely impartial source. However, I am trying to be impartial, and when I evaluate the talent of the two teams, I think this year the Cavs come out ahead. Second, this is not a criticism of the Celtics or Brad Stevens. The Celtics’ run in this year’s playoffs is truly impressive and has solidified Brad Stevens’ place among the best coaches in the league. That he got no votes for coach of the year (among his coaching peers) is an inexplicable error. Boston is a young, talented group with a bright future, as I have written about here. Stepping back, though, the idea that any team having lost its two best players can beat a healthy Cavs team boasting LeBron James and Kevin Love is implausible at best. The past seven years, LeBron’s teams have been buzzsaws that defeat even the most formidable Eastern Conference foes (looking at you, 60-win Atlanta Hawks and the Toronto Raptors three years in a row). For the Celtics to win this series would be unprecedented considering what we’ve seen from both LeBron in the past seven seasons and the Cavs in the past three.
The primary reason the Cavs have such an edge is because of LeBron James. He is the best player on the court, and his playoff performance this year has been incredible, even by his standards. Averaging over 30 points per game with multiple 40-point performances, LeBron has put on a clinic of freakish fadeaway shots and superhuman buzzer-beaters. Brad Stevens is a great coach, but 15 years into James’ career, no coach has found a way to contain LeBron in the playoffs, and for all his coaching acumen, Stevens is unlikely to be any different. James is playing to win, and he has the capability to take over a game, be completely unguardable, and also get his teammates involved to make the whole group better.
Ultimately, the real determining factor on the series’ outcome is not LeBron James, but rather the performance of the other Cavaliers. LeBron’s performance is consistently incredible, and there is simply no real way to guard him. However, if Kevin Love and the Cavs’ role players can be contained, then Cleveland is vulnerable (as the Indiana series showed). The Cavs are actually at their worst when LeBron has to carry the team. Unfortunately for Boston, the Celtics are facing a Cavs team that has started to figure it out. Going back to Game 7 against Indiana, Cleveland has deployed a lineup of George Hill, JR Smith, Kyle Korver, LeBron James, and Kevin Love, which had never played together during the regular season. This new lineup has won five straight games and been productive all-around. This iteration of the Cavs is balanced, surrounding LeBron with shooters (Smith, Love, Korver), a second experienced ball handler (Hill), and a true #2 (Love). Against Toronto, we saw the impact of Hill, who can bring up the ball and run the game as the point guard, freeing LeBron to maximize his effectiveness by focusing on playing forward. Hill can also be aggressive and create his own shot, spurring the offense to take some burden off LeBron. Kevin Love also emerged from a tough Indiana series and looked like the all-star he is. If Love is on, the Cavs have the two best players on the court. The Cavs we’ve seen coming into the Eastern Conference Finals are an experienced squad that is very strong on offense (shredding the Raptors’ top defense) while also playing proficient defense of their own (regular season statistics aside), and Boston can’t overcome that combination.
The Celtics’ hope in this series lies in trying to replicate Indiana’s tactic of defending the Cavs very physically and (hopefully) running them off the court. Boston’s young legs could conceivably accomplish this, and there is a lot of talent between Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Al Horford, all of whom have played brilliantly. However, even with Marcus Smart back, the Celtics are depleted, starting players who should be on the bench (sorry, Scary Terry). Furthermore, the Cavs are simply better. Even with Tatum and Brown, these Celtics are not as talented as the Cavs, who are healthy, able, and more experienced. Also notable is that of the potential stars in this matchup, LeBron is unguardable and Kevin Love can compete with Al Horford or exploit a mismatch with Aron Baynes. On the Celtics side, Horford could have a good series, but Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum (whoever gets matched up on JR Smith) could be in for a rough time. Smith has been effective in pestering first Victor Oladipo and then DeMar DeRozan, and he could really cause havoc against the less-experienced Celtics stars. For those of you rolling your eyes at the mention of JR Smith, he is the classic example of a player who turns it on in the playoffs and shows that with effort he can be good. Also consider that Smith held DeRozan to 67 points in 4 games, including a Game 3 benching in the 4th quarter. If Smith continues his defensive prowess against Brown or Tatum, Boston could have problems.
Overall, the Boston Celtics are an impressive team with an exciting future. However, this year, the Celtics are on the wrong side of LeBron James, without the overall talent or depth to challenge him. This series will probably go 5-6 games, though 4 or 7 wouldn’t totally shock me. Ultimately, LeBron James, Kevin Love, and their seasoned cohort are too much for Boston. In this matchup, the Celtics come out behind, because coaching has its limits and talent ultimately prevails. In trying to break LeBron’s NBA Finals streak, the Celtics are toast.
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