(Photo by Erik Drost)
The Boston Celtics are in trouble. Perhaps this is unusual to say about a team that is securely in second in the Eastern Conference and has already clinched a playoff spot. Nonetheless, a combination of injuries, lack of depth, and inexperience leave Boston vulnerable to playoff disappointment.
The biggest factor is injuries, which have been a recurring theme from the first minutes of the season--when Gordon Hayward broke his ankle on a freak play. Hayward is a bona-fide star and a true number-two option behind Kyrie Irving with playoff experience. Without him, some in the Celtics organization itself thought Boston’s finals chances were over. Then the Celtics went on to hang around in the top two seeds, reinvigorating their playoff aspirations.
Of late, injuries have struck again. In addition to Hayward, team leader Kyrie Irving is struggling with a recurring knee problem. While he is likely to be back, this isn’t a new issue, and any lingering effects could cause severe detriment to Kyrie’s game, which is so dependent upon his mobility. Furthermore, big man Daniel Theis and guard Marcus Smart, key defensive pieces, are both injured and unlikely to return this season. Without them (Smart especially), the Celtics defense is vulnerable, as was exposed when the Celtics were without Smart after a hand laceration earlier this season. Meanwhile, second-year forward Jaylen Brown has also been out due to a head injury, though he looks to be returning soon.
With all these injuries, what is the big picture? The bottom line is that, even during their peak performance early in the season, the Celtics were a young, thin, inexperienced team with little room for error. Today’s NBA is build around stars, and the Celtics only have one in Kyrie Irving. One is rarely enough, especially if he’s hampered by persistent knee trouble. The Celtics also lack a deep bench, with no real offensive difference-makers and now no defensive ones either with Smart out. The second unit also lacks a defensive presence in the paint, as Greg Monroe is a more offense-oriented player. To make up for their lack of depth and loss of Hayward, the Celtics need full production out of everyone, and, especially with injuries, they won’t get it.
It is in the face of adversity that experience is a valuable commodity in the NBA, and the Celtics don’t have that either. Al Horford and Kyrie Irving do have experience, but the next two options, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, are both young players with few (if any) playoff games under their belt. Terry Rozier, the Celtics’ lead bench player, is also young. Brown’s, Tatum’s, and Rozier’s youth has shown this year, as they have struggled with consistency and general performance. In reality, it is unfair to expect star-level production out of first- and second-year players in Brown and Tatum. In the playoffs, with the lights on, odds are they’ll get exposed against teams with legitimate playoff experience.
The Celtics’ problems become especially clear when the first round matchups are examined. If the season ended today, they would play the Milwaukee Bucks. Does the Celtics starting lineup have the ability to contain Giannis and Khris Middleton, especially when the backups are in? Can the inexperienced Tatum and Rozier keep in check wily veteran guard Eric Bledsoe in the playoffs? Perhaps the biggest question, can the Celtics bench without Smart and Theis contain players like Jabari Parker and Thon Maker? That seems like a very uphill battle. The Celtics most likely alternatives, the Philadelphia 76ers, should cause equal concern with star duo Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid surrounded by a really solid, experienced bench including T.J. McConnell, Ersan Ilyasova, and Marco Belinelli. The 76ers are deeper and healthier than a thin, ailing Celtics team. Even the Miami Heat should be taken seriously (yes for real), as Celtics fans will remember their near loss to the eighth seed Chicago Bulls just last year. Miami boasts a solid squad with Goran Dragic and a big man duo of Hassan Whiteside and Bam Adebayo that the Celtics would likely have trouble with.
Overall, the Celtics remain a very good team. But between injuries and inexperience, Boston just isn’t a true title contender. That shouldn’t be a shock or a cause for distress. The Celtics are going through a rebuild that has progressed faster than expected. With Kyrie, Hayward, Tatum, and Brown, they will be a top contender in the East for years to come. But to expect a team with two major pieces playing in their first and second NBA seasons and only one star playing (and not totally healthy) to be a strong playoff team is unrealistic. Getting past the first round is a great achievement and should be the goal--this year won’t end with a Celtics title.
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