With the NBA postseason imminent, now is the perfect time for offseason speculation. For Celtics fans, the conjecturing has quickly centered around prime targets like Anthony Davis and Kawhi Leonard. Unfortunately, all this speculation is pie in the sky that will almost certainly come to nothing.
The reason the Celtics are unlikely to pull of significant trades is simple: they can’t. This isn’t because they don’t have assets-- Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Terry Rozier are all appealing pieces, and they also have the Sacramento Kings’ (likely very high) first round pick next year. However, NBA trade rules requires salaries to match, and for the Celtics the math simply isn’t there. Per Spotrac, here are Boston’s ten most valuable current guaranteed contracts for the 2018-2019 season:
Gordon Hayward- $31,214,295
Al Horford- $28,928,709
Kyrie Irving- $20,099,188
Jayson Tatum- $6,700,800
Marcus Morris- $5,375,000
Jaylen Brown- $5,169,960
Terry Rozier- $3,050,390
Guerschon Yabusele- $2,667,600
Note: These contracts also don’t take into account the possibility for the probable resigning of Marcus Smart, who is likely to make in the $5-10 million range.
Looking at these contracts, two things stand out. First, most of them are fairly cheap rookie deals. Second, there’s essentially no dead money available to trade. The big three of Horford, Hayward, and Irving are unlikely to be broken up, but swinging a significant trade without one of them would mean packaging at least three critical rookie contracts.
Take Anthony Davis, for example. Even if the Pelicans were willing to deal him, which is unlikely, he will make $25,434,263 next year (per Spotrac). Combine Tatum, Morris, and Brown, and the Celtics are still around $9 million short. Kawhi Leonard presents a similar problem, making $20,099,188 next year (per Spotrac). Again, putting together Morris, Tatum, and Brown is close, but not quite enough salary wise, while likely being an overpay in terms of talent. This math precludes any major trade being made without either breaking up the Celtics core or grossly overpaying by trading four or five players for one.
Ultimately, the Celtics could shock us as they did last offseason by reconfiguring the whole team and dealing one of their stars, but barring that, Danny Ainge is likely to be working at the margins this offseason, not assembling blockbusters.
(salary figures per Spotrac)
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