In 2015, I had a fantasy team that started the season 5-2, filled with talent up and down the roster.
Unfortunately, a couple of things didn’t break my way the next two weeks, and I found myself 5-4 heading into Week 10. As we all do after disappointing fantasy losses, I had a mild panic attack about the state of my roster. As good as Adrian Peterson was, I had a gaping hole in the RB2 slot of my roster. I worked the trading market, throwing out some feelers. I got some maybes and some no's, ultimately deciding that a trade wasn’t going to be right for me at that point in the season. Besides, the waiver wire had a lot of promise that week--CJ Anderson was coming off of a big game against the Pats, and Tim Hightower had a lot of promise out of New Orleans, but I decided to take a flier on rookie Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson.
Some might say that ended up being a good decision. Riding my two workhorse backs, I brought home the Ramon Trophy, where it would last for another year before a devastating loss to big Jed Westwater in the next season’s semifinals matchup. Hoisting Ramon is an unbelievable feeling, one that only a select, blessed few will ever be fortunate enough to know. After taking the day to celebrate, I got right back to business and slid into dirty Reide Dion's DMs, offering him Johnson in exchange for a first-rounder. Much to his regret, he declined this trade, citing a lack of certainty surrounding Johnson's touches the following season. So I was forced into keeping Johnson, traded AP for a first rounder, and the rest is history. MVP season for Johnson, averaging 20.6 points per game in a non-PPR league.
Thoughts @Reide?
Obviously last year didn’t go as planned for Johnson, as he hurt his wrist just three quarters into the first game of 2017. He’s back this season and paired with Todd Gurley in my lineup. Johnson should be an odds on favorite to repeat his 2016 success and be a top-three player at his position… or should he?
I think there are some pretty serious concerns surrounding Johnson’s capability to be a top-three back this season. Chief among them for me is a new coach coming to town in Arizona. Coaches are so important to the success of running backs in fantasy: We saw this first hand in the highs and lows of Todd Gurley who, despite his immense talent, rushed for just 895 yards in 2016. Just a year later under Sean McVay (and after I selected him third overall in my league's draft), Gurley had almost 2100 yards from scrimmage and scored 19 touchdowns. Bruce Arians was a running back’s dream; he gave Johnson a billion touches and schemed up some pretty nice holes for the superstar. I’m not 100% sure that Steve Wilks, former Panthers DC and current Cardinals head coach, will give Johnson the same volume. Beyond coaching uncertainty, the Cardinals offensive line is hot garbage. Last season, the Cardinals allowed 52 sacks during the regular season, the third-highest mark amongst all NFL teams. They also produced a shocking 3.4 Y/A in the running game, as their lack of talent in that area was seriously exposed without the talent of David Johnson to cover for them. Needless to say, they were pretty bad. The Cardinals are also expected to cut both Mike Iupati and Jared Vandheer, the only two offensive linemen they have that were impactful in Johnson’s All-Pro 2016 campaign.
All in all, I’m still optimistic, but I don’t think elite running back performance is a given for Johnson heading into this season. He’s going to need a couple of things to break his way--my heart is set on the 2018 NFL Draft. Hopefully, the Cardinals select a lineman in the first round and calm my nerves at least a little bit.
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