As I read Scott Crosby's latest fantasy football rankings, there were definitely some things that I agreed with, but also a lot that I disagreed with. Upon ruminating about his bold rankings throughout the day, I decided to come up with rankings of my own. To maintain consistency, I will rank the top 12 quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers for fantasy purposes and show them next to Mr. Crosby’s for direct reference.
Scott's Top 12 QB's
My Top 12 Quarterbacks:
Aaron Rodgers
Tom Brady
Deshaun Watson
Russell Wilson
Cam Newton
Drew Brees
Carson Wentz
Kirk Cousins
Jimmy Garoppolo
Philip Rivers
Matthew Stafford
Andrew Luck
Analysis:
Rodgers and Brady are the clear-cut top-2 QBs. They are talented, consistent, and routinely have terrific weapons. They’re both first ballot Hall-of-Famers who come through in the clutch moments. Whenever they have time to pass, it feels like they’re going to make an explosive play downfield.
Scott clearly has tremendous confidence that Watson and Wentz will recover from their ACL injuries in time for the regular season or potentially early into the regular season; I’m much more optimistic about Watson than I am about Wentz, though. When he tore his other ACL at Clemson, Watson returned the next season and put up amazing numbers. Plus, his ACL injury last season occurred around mid-season, whereas Wentz’s injury came towards the end of the season and thus he has had less time to recover in time for the start of the 2018 campaign. I’m much more excited about Watson’s progress and potential to continue his excellent play (granted he probably won’t match what numbers he put up last season) than I am about Wentz.
Jimmy G is set up to be brilliant this season. If only he had punched it into the endzone a couple more times last season, his stats would’ve been even more astounding, and he could’ve been in the conservation as a top-5 fantasy QB entering this season. Obviously, the addition of Jerick McKinnon helps him out of the backfield, but wideouts Marquise Goodwin and Pierre Garcon and tight end George Kittle will provide nice options on the sidelines and down the middle of the field. With a full offseason of learning more of the playbook and knowing that he’s the guy--not to mention a fat, $138M contract--Garoppolo is primed for a monster season.
The throwing shoulder of Andrew Luck has been a cryptic matter for well over a year now. Reports indicate that he’s trending in the right direction, but until he throws an actual football to a real receiver, I’m hesitant on drafting him as my top QB. Hopefully, he gets better quickly.
Overall, the quarterback position is unbelievably deep this year. Unless you have a strong gut feeling, the best way to go is to wait on a quarterback until the first 5-7 of them are off the board. The difference from the QB8 to the number QB15 is probably not that significant, so load up on running backs and wide receivers in the early rounds.
Notable disagreements with Scott: Wentz (7 vs. 3), Cousins (8 vs. NR), Ryan (NR vs.
Scott's Top 12 RB's
My Top 12 Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell
Todd Gurley
David Johnson
Ezekiel Elliott
Saquon Barkley
Alvin Kamara
Leonard Fournette
Melvin Gordon
Kareem Hunt
Dalvin Cook
Joe Mixon
Christian McCaffrey
Analysis:
Bell and Gurley seem to be locks as the top 2 RBs off the board this year barring injury. Bell and his patient, rhythmic running style have confused defenses for several years now, and it appears that that will continue. With Gurley coming off of an unreal season, he too is destined for another major workload.
The 4-game suspension handed down to Mark Ingram is certainly good news for those who select Alvin Kamara, but I wouldn’t assume that Kamara will be given 25+ touches in each of those first 4 games. Sean Payton is an offensive mastermind, and with that in consideration, I think that he’ll manage Kamara’s touches so that he doesn’t get beaten up, especially given that Kamara isn’t a thumper like Ingram.
Most, like Mr. Crosby, have Kareem Hunt in the top 5, but a lot of his production came in the first half of the season, and he faded down the stretch. I think that his touchdowns will regress and his YPC will decrease as well, especially with a new, unproven NFL quarterback in Patrick Mahomes running the show. Although Mahomes has a monster arm and promising talent, the Chiefs’ early-season schedule is very tough, something that will likely contribute to a less stellar season from Hunt.
Notable disagreements with Scott: Kamara (6 vs. 2), Mixon (11 vs. NR), McCoy (NR vs. 11)
Scott's Top 12 WR's
My Top 12 Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown
DeAndre Hopkins
Odell Beckham Jr.
Mike Evans
Michael Thomas
Julio Jones
Josh Gordon
Keenan Allen
Davante Adams
A.J. Green
Doug Baldwin
T.Y. Hilton
Analysis:
I understand the hype surrounding DeAndre Hopkins and Josh Gordon entering this season, but Antonio Brown has been the most talented, consistent fantasy receiver for the last few seasons, and I don’t see that changing barring injury. Hopkins will be great and the upside is certainly there with Gordon, but Brown is as steady as they come.
Mike Evans is a big, physical wideout who has had two really good seasons and two not-so-good years, mostly due to the fluctuation in touchdowns. In his first and third seasons, he scored 12 touchdowns in each. In his second and fourth seasons, he scored 3 and 5 touchdowns. All reason points to him returning to the mean this time around, as we’ve seen how good he was in 2016 following a down year in 2015. What's more, Evans has racked up 1,000+ yards in each of his first four seasons while missing just three games over his young career. The go-to target in Tampa Bay should be in for a bounce-back year, and it’s preposterous that Mr. Crosby didn’t make room for him in his top 12.
Frankly, the order of guys 8-12 is very loose, as one could make the case for any of them to be the highest of the bunch. However, Hilton’s value rests almost entirely on the uncertain health of Andrew Luck, Doug Baldwin isn’t getting any younger up in Seattle, and A.J. still has Andy Dalton throwing him the ball. Of course, they’re still locked into the top 15 for wideouts, but Allen and Adams have more avenues to fantasy success than the aforementioned pass-catchers. Each of those guys is coming off of a monster season, is in a fantasy-friendly offensive system, and is a skilled route-runner with size.
Notable disagreements with Scott: Gordon (7 vs. 1), Evans (4 vs. NR), Thomas (5 vs. 11), Hilton (12 vs. 5), Baldwin (11 vs. NR), Diggs (NR vs. 10)
(Stats via ESPN)
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