(Photo by Phil Roeder)
I’ll have more in-depth blogs on March Madness coming (including the release of my bracket later in the week), but here are my early thoughts by region:
West:
I love Michigan, but I hate the draw. Michigan is quite possibly the hottest team in the country after its late-season run that was capped off by an impressive Big Ten Championship. With that being said, the Wolverines have to deal with an underseeded Montana in the first round and possibly Houston in the second. If they were to get by those two, my bracket has them facing UNC and then Gonzaga in the next two rounds. That’s an absolutely brutal road to the Final Four. As of now, I have Michigan coming out of the West, but I very well may change that with the tough road ahead of them.
Missouri could be a very dangerous team with star Michael Porter Jr. back in action. He was going to be one of the best players in the country before his injury. If he can shake off the rust, it’s entirely possible that Missouri could upset Xavier (who is the worst #1 seed by far) in the second round and possibly go even farther. I’m debating that pick as of now.
Do not ignore #12 South Dakota State. With Mike Daum “the Dauminator,” anything is possible. I have the Jackrabbits beating Ohio State in the first round and giving Gonzaga hell in the second (but ultimately falling short).
Providence has the makings of a Cinderella team. In its last three games, the Friars have wins over Creighton and Xavier and a tightly contested overtime loss to Villanova. We very well could see a Providence over UNC upset in the second round.
Current Pick: Michigan
Runner-Up: Gonzaga
East:
The East is easily the most up-in-the-air region in this tournament. The top six seeds all have legitimate shots of heading to the final four, plus the wild card #10 Butler Bulldogs.
Villanova is probably the best offensive team in the country and deserves the #1 seed it received, but it is just so hard to trust this program come tournament time. The Wildcats have a history of getting bounced early in the tournament. ‘Nova has been a #2 seed or higher each of the last four seasons. In three of them, it lost in the second round (including last year against Wisconsin) and in one they went all the way. Both of those results are very possible for this Villanova team who, as I mentioned earlier, nearly lost to the now #10 seed Providence Friars. If Collin Sexton continues his dominance, I could see Alabama pulling off the second round upset, and Virginia Tech also has a shot. As of right now, I have Villanova losing to West Virginia in the Sweet Sixteen.
Right now, the potential West Virginia vs. Wichita State second round matchup is the hardest call. “Press Virginia” against the fifth-best offense in the country (according to the great kenpom.com, which I recommend everyone check out when making your brackets). This is a call that will keep me up at night.
Current Pick: West Virginia
Runner-Up: Florida
Midwest:
Michigan State is the favorite with a weak #1 seed in Kansas and a Duke team that I’m not too crazy about. The Miles Bridges-led Spartans have a pretty clear path to the Sweet Sixteen. They will have to beat Bucknell and then the winner of the ASU/Syracuse vs. TCU game; none of those teams are anything to write home about. Meanwhile Duke will have to go through Oklahoma or URI in the second round. URI is a very solid team, and if Trae Young goes full Shabazz Napier, we could see Duke bounced in the second round.
Oklahoma is obviously the biggest wild card in this region and maybe the entire tournament. The Sooners were legitimate title contenders up until about a month ago, when they went into a death spiral. The question is can they get out of it? Trae Young is a very special player, and when he’s outside of the Big 12 (where teams are less familiar with him), I think you could see an amazing run from this #10 seed. Remember how important having a star guard is in the NCAA tournament--Kemba Walker and Shabazz Napier have both shown us this, as has the great Marcus Paige to a lesser extent. Any team with Trae Young has a shot. Watch out for the Sooners.
New Mexico State seems like the clearest upset pick in the first round, as they play an overseeded Clemson team. This really seems like a clear cut #12 over #5 upset. I don’t think anyone will be surprised when New Mexico defeats Clemson this week.
Current Pick: Michigan State
Runner-Up: Kansas
South:
The ACC Champions are the clear favorite in this region with their unbelievable defense. Virginia has the best defense in the country by far and its offense is not too shabby either. While UVA is my pick right now to make it out of the South, I really don’t love the draw. I see Creighton, a team who beat Villanova and should have beaten Xavier towards the end of the season, as a team who can give Virginia some trouble in the second round. After that, the Cavaliers will likely have to face the steaming hot SEC Champion Kentucky Wildcats or the DeAndre Ayton-led Arizona Wildcats in the Sweet Sixteen. That is a really, really tough draw for the Cavs.
Loyola-Chicago is probably the best bet for an upset pick on this side of the bracket. A first round matchup with a suspect Miami team is definitely an upset I’m going to be taking.
I’m not a huge fan of the #2 seeded Cincinnati Bearcats, as their offense is rather unpleasant to watch, but their defense is tremendous and definitely could be enough to carry them to the regional final. A Virginia vs. Cincy matchup in the Elite Eight would be the defensive game of the ages.
Current Pick: Virginia
Runner-Up: Cincinnati
It’s likely that these predictions will change over the course of the week as I continue to run AND crunch the numbers, but this is where I’m at right now for a Final Four: Michigan, West Virginia, Michigan State, and Virginia, with Michigan State cutting down the nets. I’ll update these predictions as the week goes on and release my full and final bracket Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
P.S. Someone please talk me out of picking Trae Young to go full Kemba Walker/Shabazz Napier and carry Oklahoma to the Final Four. I really wanna do it. Someone please stop me.
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