“To be honest, I’m worth more than 12-14 million. Just for the things I do on the court that don’t show up on the stat sheet. You don’t find guys like that. I always leave everything on the court, every game. Tell me how many other players can say that” (ESPN).
That was what Marcus Smart had to say following a brutal Game 7 loss when he was asked about impending contract negotiations. Before we delve into the accuracy of his response, let me be the first to say that an hour after your team’s season ends--in a game when you were 1-for-10 from the field--isn’t the best time to make a case for why you’re worthy of being the fourth highest-paid player on the Celtics roster (behind Hayward, Irving, and Horford).
Smart did appear to back off his brash statements when he later said, “I’m here. They’re already planning for me to be here… I want to be in Boston” (ESPN). Regardless, Danny Ainge the Celtics are soon to be in a position where they must decide how much they’re willing to pay for the services of one Marcus Smart, who is set to become a restricted free agent this offseason.
Given that he’ll be a RFA, Marcus Smart can’t simply sign where he pleases come July. Right out of the gates, the Celtics will have the option to offer Smart a deal, whether it be a $6.1M qualifying offer or a more lucrative, long-term extension. On the other hand, if the Celtics and Smart can’t agree on a contract, Marcus can sign an offer sheet with another team, but Ainge will still have final say over whether or not he’d like to match the offer and retain Smart.
Those advocating for Smart to be paid in the $12-14M range (and beyond) point to his defense and intangibles (i.e. hustle, grit, heart, etc.). While it’s difficult to put a number on the latter quality, defensive impact is often measured by several statistics, most notably defensive points saved (DPS), defensive real plus-minus (DRPM), and defensive rating.** To get a full explanation of these metrics, read below, but the basic notion is that these statistics do a decent job of encompassing a player’s defensive performance. Among qualifying NBA guards, Marcus Smart ranks 15th in DPS, 8th in DRPM, and 8th (tied with Spurs guard Danny Green) in defensive rating. So yes, he’s a talented defender, but it should be noted that Ben Simmons ranks 1st, 8th, and 3rd, Dejounte Murray 3rd, 1st, and 1st, and Lonzo Ball 4th, 3rd, and 6th (respectively) in those categories. In other words, he’s great defensively, but there are definitely some better than him.
In terms of intangible qualities, I love having a guy like Smart on the team for his hustle and grit, but “glue guys” aren’t exceptionally difficult to find. For example, P.J. Tucker and Trevor Ariza both fit this mold, and they’re making $5.3M and $7.3M apiece. The final consideration has to be Smart’s offense (or lack thereof); whether you like it or not, the NBA is an offensively-driven league. In this aspect, Smart has been bad throughout his first four years in the Association--he averages 9.4 PPG, shoots 36% from the field, and logs a putrid 29.3% from beyond the arc. Moreover, he doesn’t seem to realize how bad he is, and Game 7 against Cleveland is the perfect example of Marcus’ shooting vice.
Considering his positive defensive contribution, energy off the bench, and pathetic shooting, I personally don’t think he’s worth more than $12-13M a year. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Danny Ainge opens up his checkbook and overpays for Smart given Boston’s cap flexibility and the likelihood of a salary cap bump in the coming seasons. My analysis of Smart’s relative value isn’t to say that Ainge would be per se making a mistake by paying him upwards of $12M; I’m simply saying that in a vacuum, Smart’s value shouldn’t be that high.
All things considered, I have a decent feeling that we’ll see Marcus Smart back in Celtics green for 2019 and beyond.
**DPS is a volume-based statistic that measures how many total points a player saved for his team over the course of the season by taking into account both per-possession stats as well as minutes played. DRPM is the player’s average defensive impact (in terms of plus-minus) per 100 possessions. Defensive rating represents the predicted number of points allowed by a player defensively on 100 possessions.
(Stats via NBA.com, NBA Math, Basketball-Reference, and Spotrac)
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