He stands 6’5” and weighs a solid 237 pounds; his 10 inch hands have allowed him to succeed in inclement weather. He’s played college football in relative obscurity in a non-major conference in the midwest, and his passing stats don’t leap off the page.
At the NFL Combine, he ran a 4.75 40-yard dash, and his broad jump was just under 10 feet. He threw well at the Combine too, displaying exceptional arm strength and a tight spiral. Although he doesn’t have proven success against top-level college competition, his physical talent and high upside are undeniable. Given the many QB-needy teams this year, he’ll likely be a top pick in the draft.
If I asked you whether this description was about Carson Wentz in 2016 or Josh Allen in 2018, you’d be right no matter how you answered. The similarities between the two players are astonishing, and there’s no question that Allen’s draft stock will be boosted by the NFL success of Carson Wentz. Prior to the 2016 NFL Draft, there was a two man race between QBs Jared Goff and Carson Wentz to be the top pick. Goff had been a three year starter in the PAC-12, and he had regularly competed against ranked teams and NFL-level talent on defense. On the other hand, Wentz had played in North Dakota; if I asked any person at random to tell me one thing about North Dakota, most would say that it’s the home of Mount Rushmore (it’s actually in South Dakota). Wentz’s obscurity and the relatively poor competition he faced shifted the race in Goff’s favor, despite Wentz’s significant physical talents. In hindsight, though Goff had an effective year under Sean McVay, any team would choose Wentz instead in a heartbeat. The same thing is happening in 2018, albeit with Josh Allen and a pair of PAC-12 QBs in Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen.
Is Josh Allen going to be the next Carson Wentz? Well, that depends. First and foremost, if Allen is to have any shot at achieving Wentz-level production in the NFL, he needs a coach like Doug Pederson. There is no question that Wentz’s rapid development and success is largely a result of learning under Pederson, a veritable offensive master whose playcalling and gameplan wizardry was on full display in the Eagles’ Super Bowl run with Nick Foles at the helm. If Carson Wentz had been mired in Cleveland, well, suffice to say there’s no chance he throws for 33 touchdowns in 13 games as a second year pro. Cleveland has actually never had a player throw for 33 TDs in a single season in the entire history of its franchise… but let’s get back to Allen, as making fun of Cleveland is such low-hanging fruit that it has actually rotted on the forest floor and been eaten by flea-ridden rodents.
Josh Allen could be the next Carson Wentz if he is drafted into the proper situation with the right offensive-minded coach to develop him. If a team like the Giants is so bold as to draft Allen with the second pick, pairing him with proven QB whisperer Pat Shurmur and young weapons Odell Beckham Jr. and Evan Engram, the former Wyoming QB could be an incredible success. If Allen is thrown onto the Browns garbage heap or forced into pressure-cooker environments with defensive-minded coaches like the Broncos or Jets, he is likely to struggle early. It’s safe to say that Allen’s future team will have a lot to say about his NFL success. For his sake, Allen better hope he’s as fortunate as Wentz in terms of his new team and head coach.
(Image Via Sporting News)
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