It’s Wednesday, April 11th, and the Minnesota Timberwolves are hosting the Denver Nuggets for the final NBA playoff spot--effectively a play-in game. As the Nuggets cut the deficit in the 4th quarter, the Minnesota faithful inside the Target Center becomes anxious. Minnesota hasn’t been to playoffs since 2004, and many expected this would be the year that they would break through.
The T-Wolves would go on to win that game in overtime, but the final minutes raised questions about their starting big man, Karl-Anthony Towns, specifically with regard to his offensive disappearance. In the last six minutes of regulation AND the five minute overtime session, Towns attempted just one shot (which he missed). In a game that had so much on the line, it was certainly a disappointing crunch-time effort by Minnesota’s supposed star player.
It wasn’t just that one game in which Towns was offensively apathetic down the stretch. He dropped 30+ points 11 times this season, but 8 of those games occured within the friendly confines of Minnesota’s home court. Out of those 8 games, 5 of the opponents did not make the playoffs. Conversely, Towns played 6 complete games this season on the road vs. teams who finished the season ranked top-5 in defensive rating (Boston, Utah, Philadelphia, San Antonio, and Toronto); in those matchups, he averaged 19.3 PPG, slightly below his 21.3 PPG season average, and the Timberwolves went 1-5. When he squared up against Anthony Davis in New Orleans, whom some believe to have a similar skill set to Towns, KAT averaged a mere 6.5 points and 7.5 rebounds. In the current playoff series against the Rockets, who ranked 6th in the NBA in defensive rating, KAT has scored a total of 13 points in 64 minutes, one of the largest storylines (or lack thereof) of the playoffs thus far.
His defense, which was considered his major downside entering the NBA, has been less-than-stellar throughout his pro career. He’s consistently slow to come out on high pick and rolls, often letting the guard go by him laterally and create chaotic defensive rotations that lead to a wide open layup/dunk or three-pointer. Additionally, he is frequently timid when contesting shots at the rim. Sometimes, he’ll challenge the shot well and potentially even block it, but more often than not he allows the offensive player to jump underneath his outstretched arms for a layup. Compared to other talented big men like Joel Embiid (6th in NBA in both blocks and rebounds) and Anthony Davis (1st and 5th in NBA in blocks and rebounds), KAT is an atrocious defender. It’s no surprise that the Timberwolves ranked 22nd in defensive rating, 24th in defensive rebound percentage, and 26th in opponent eFG% in the regular season, while the Sixers and Pelicans performed significantly better in those categories. (Also note that the Sixers and Pelicans are leading their playoff series and the T-Wolves are not.)
The pressing issue for the Minnesota front office will be what to do with KAT in the near future. In June of 2015, they selected Towns with the first overall pick, clearly thinking that he would be their franchise player. They had traded Kevin Love the year before to grab Andrew Wiggins, the first overall selection the previous year, setting them up to select a new big man in Towns. In his first two seasons, KAT put up terrific stats (similar to this year), but because the team was horrible and the market is not particularly large, there was little to no national scrutiny for Towns. Since acquiring All-Star Jimmy Butler and quality NBA players like Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson last offseason, the national media and NBA fans in general expected Minnesota to perform better. Consequently, more people have become aware of Towns’ struggles with offensive urgency at times and his pitiful defense.
Let me be clear though: I believe that Towns is a world-class offensive talent who has shown that he can dominate some games on offense. However, his lack of assertiveness in big moments and poor defense makes me think that he will not be a centerpiece for the Timberwolves in the years to come, as nobody knows exactly why his flaws are so apparent. Many have speculated that it could be attributed to coach Thibodeau’s old-school approach where he plays a small bench and therefore gives little rest to his starters. Others think that Minnesota’s struggles shooting from beyond the arc have created less space for KAT to operate down low against a mismatch. In any case (one of Scott Crosby’s favorite phrases), Minnesota must re-evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of Karl-Anthony Towns because they may never get over the hump if they think that he is “their guy” for the next decade.
(Stats via ESPN and Cleaning the Glass)
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