Yesterday, T&L posted the above POTD in an attempt to gauge the public consensus on how clutch LeBron James really is. After hitting two cold-blooded buzzer-beaters in the first and second rounds of this year’s playoffs, LeBron has the sports world talking (again) about where he stacks up all-time. In terms of crunch-time performance, Kobe seemed like a solid litmus test because he’s considered one of the clutchest scorers ever.
When our poll was posted, I naturally wanted to check out the numbers before making a decision. I entered countless queries on Google and was met with unrelated and outdated results. ESPN, The Ringer, and Bleacher Report all had different answers as to the definition of “clutch,” each offering a different metric (player efficiency, offensive win shares, points created, and more). I couldn’t stand this lack of consistency in analysis; I just wanted to know who would put the ball in the bucket when it mattered most. So I went back to Google and asked for the raw data, the true shooting percentage of Kobe and LeBron with the game on the line. And once again, I came up empty. It was time for T&L to step up to the plate and provide the people with the information they deserved. I dug into Basketball Reference’s Shot Finder, and--after several hours--here’s what I came up with…
The data:
Before we get into the numbers, let’s establish the range of data we’re examining. Unfortunately, Basketball Reference has only tracked shot-by-shot information since the 2000-01 season, so 4 years of Kobe’s career were not available using this particular tool. More on this later.
Other than that, I was able to fit the criteria of the data almost perfectly to the poll question--shots to tie or win a playoff game with time winding down in the 4th quarter or overtime. In terms of time on the clock, I took three different samples: 5 seconds or less, 24 seconds or less, and 2 minutes or less. It’s important to note that this analysis is geared towards answering the question of who’s better at scoring the basketball in high-leverage situations and not who’s a better all-around clutch player; I looked at zero statistics regarding rebounding, defense, and passing.
Here’s how it shook out:
(Note that although the Lakers were in the playoffs in 2013, Kobe did not attempt any of the shots in question)
Data Set #1: 5s or less
Score: LJ-1, KB-0
Data Set #2: 24s or less
Score: LJ-2, KB-0
Data Set #3: 2m or less
(Kobe's first 4 seasons not included; see explanation below)
Final Score: LJ-3, KB-0
TLDR:
Kobe in the playoffs with the game on the line and...
-5s or less: 4-for-17, 23.53%
-24s or less: 7-for-25, 28%
-2m or less: 17-for-43, 39.53%
LeBron in the playoffs with the game on the line and...
-5s or less: 7-for-17, 41.18%
-24s or less: 11-for-33, 33.33%
-2m or less: 28-for-64, 43.75%
Accounting for Kobe’s “lost years”:
I spent quite a while scouring the internet for Kobe’s clutchest playoff shots prior to the 2001 postseason, and I came up with just one: a game-winner against Phoenix in Game 2 of the 2000 Western Conference Semifinals. On the other hand, Kobe had his infamous “air-ball game” in 1997 against the Jazz and also missed a 3-pointer at the buzzer of Game 2 of the 1999 Western Conference Semifinals vs. the Spurs, so those misses are all included.
In other words, I’m fairly certain that my data covers all clutch makes from his first 4 postseasons, but it’s entirely possible that I didn’t get all of his misses. So it’s highly unlikely that my analysis of his first 4 years hurts his clutch shooting percentage, and yet his numbers are still below LeBron’s. Additionally, I didn’t bother to try and recover all makes/misses for the 2-minute time range (not enough information available without shot-by-shot tracking), so Kobe’s first 4 seasons are not included in data set #3.
The bottom line: This analysis may not be perfect, but given that the central statistic is not volume-based, a few missing years in the middle of a 19-year career shouldn’t skew the results too drastically. And if they do alter Bryant’s percentages negatively, it’s likely just the 2-minute data set that’s affected (less important to answering the original poll than the other two data sets).
Conclusions:
1. LeBron James is statistically a better clutch scorer than Kobe Bryant
Say what you want about “Mamba Mentality” and Kobe being a “cold-blooded assassin”; the numbers bear out a clear answer as to who is a better clutch scorer: King James. According to my analysis, LeBron shoots 4.22%, 5.33%, and 17.65% better than Kobe in each data set (respectively), and the contrast between the two players’ numbers becomes more stark as the final buzzer approaches. The only argument for Kobe is his intangibles, and that’s a weak one in the face of numbers that suggest otherwise.
2. Kobe’s clutchness has been exaggerated (likely thanks to his highlight reel)
I get it--everyone loves a stepback three at the buzzer, but Kobe’s statistics really aren’t that impressive. As I researched Kobe’s history of buzzer-beaters, my YouTube search results were inundated with highlight after highlight of Bryant sealing the game at the final horn. People get attached to narratives and tend to ignore stats that disagree with those preconceived notions; this is a perfect example. While Bryant was able to come through with quite a few miraculous stepback jumpers, he was (apparently) far less efficient than LeBron.
3. The idea that LeBron doesn’t shoot in big moments is a myth
It’s a favorite argument of LeBron-haters that James defers to his teammates in the biggest moments. He did it with Kyrie in Game 7 against Golden State, they say. Here’s what I say: Over his 18-year career, LeBron has taken 17 shots in the playoffs with the game on the line and 5 or less seconds remaining; Kobe has taken the same number in 1 more season. LeBron has taken 33 shots in the playoffs with the game on the line and 24 or less seconds remaining; Kobe has attempted a mere 25. When his team needs a bucket, LeBron steps up and gets it done more frequently than Kobe did. Fact, not opinion.
Yes, go ahead and change your vote in yesterday’s POTD. We won’t blame you.
(Stats via Basketball Reference)
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