(Photo by Pete Souza)
As March Madness officially begins tomorrow, many people are scrambling to fill out that perfect bracket for the T&L Bracket Challenge (shameless plug) with little to no inclination of how to do so. So, for all you fairweather college hoops fans out there (and I’m sure there are a lot of you), I have a few tips to help get you through the first couple rounds.
I’m not going to reveal all of my juicy secrets and let you in on every one of my picks, but I will unveil some not-so-secret tricks of the trade:
Always have at least one first round upset in each region of your bracket––this does not necessarily mean a 16-seed over a 1-seed, but you should definitely have at least one 5-12 upset, and maybe even a 4-13 or two. Only four times since 1985 has at least one No. 12 seed failed to defeat a 5-seed in a single tournament (ESPN). My go-to 12-seed over 5-seed this year is New Mexico State University over Clemson in the Midwest Region.
Never have four 1-seeded teams in your Final Four; only once in the history of the tournament have all four 1-seeds made it to the Final Four, so be sure to have some upsets in the later rounds. However, don’t be afraid to roll with a particularly strong No. 1 seed to win it all. This year, for example, No. 1 seeds Villanova and Virginia are particularly strong and are close to co-favorites in Vegas with +600 and +650 moneylines, respectively.
Beware of the 3-seed; last year in the first round, the 3-seeded teams swept their opposing 14-seeds. Past the first round, 3-seeded teams have reached the National Championship only two fewer times than 2-seeds and won it only one fewer. There are a few particularly strong 3-seeds in this tournament––Michigan State and Michigan are among favorites to make a deep run. However, just because last year bode well for the third-best team in each region, it doesn’t mean this year will necessarily be the same, so exercise caution with your high seeds.
As difficult as it may be, ignore as many statistics as you can when deciding matchups. Focus less on win totals and momentum (the last four champions lost in their conference tournaments), and more on team statistics like team three-point and free throw percentages––since 1987, all but six March Madness winning teams shot over 35% from three, and only eight winners have won shooting lower than 70% from the charity stripe (USA Today). Do your research if you want to win, but make sure it’s the right research.
You’re not going to get a perfect bracket––sorry. However, you do have a shot at being best in your pool of brackets, so make informed decisions based on both seeding and how good each team actually is. Check the stats and trust the experts, but don’t always use the opinions of pundits as set-in-stone rules. Think of them more as guidelines off of which to base your decisions. When choosing upsets, don’t choose too many ridiculous upsets against teams that are large favorites––it may end up busting your bracket sooner than you’d have hoped.
If all else fails, and either you really have no idea who to choose or frankly don’t care, roll with the color blue––in the past 14 years, only one team with non-blue uniforms has ended up cutting down the nets (Louisville in 2013, eventually vacated) (USA Today).
Good luck, and happy Madness!
Comments