Welcome back to another installment of February Football Talk, where today we’ll be discussing the upcoming NFL Draft. NFL analyst Mel Kiper recently came out with his second mock draft, cleverly titled “Mel Kiper’s Mock Draft 2.0.” In this edition, Kiper envisions Wyoming QB Josh Allen going first overall to the Cleveland Browns followed by Penn State RB Saquon Barkley to the New York Giants. You can see the rest of Mel Kiper’s picks for 1-32 overall here.
Naturally, I have a few problems with this mock draft. First, I do not believe Josh Allen should be going first overall. Josh Allen was a mediocre college quarterback at Wyoming, which is barely even a Division I program. He accumulated 5015 yards, 44 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions over his two starting seasons as a sophomore and a junior. For comparison, Baker Mayfield finished his 2017 season at Oklahoma with 4627 yards, 43 touchdowns, and only 6 interceptions. Not only do Allen’s stats fail to impress, but he also faced a significantly easier schedule than any of the other top prospects at the QB position this year. However, NFL scouts are raving about Allen’s physical stature and natural arm strength––the guy hit the goal post from 50 yards on his knees!
“The biggest-arm quarterback I’ve seen since JaMarcus Russell is Josh Allen.” (NFL Network’s Mike Mayock on Josh Allen)
I love this. Keep making comparisons to Oakland’s former No. 1 overall BUST JaMarcus Russell; it really casts Josh Allen in a great light––helps my argument for sure. I honestly don’t know that Josh Allen will be a bust as of now, but I’m just a little confused as to why he is projected to go number one overall.
“Wyoming QB Josh Allen passes the eyeball test – until he starts throwing.” (Pat Forde of Yahoo! Sports)
Throwing is kind of important if you’re gonna be an NFL quarterback.
However, the Browns need a quarterback, and soon––sorry Deshone Kizer fans. But the solution is not Josh Allen. Is it in Kirk Cousins? I don’t think so, but only time will tell. I believe that if the Browns wait until the fourth pick of the draft for a quarterback, they’re guaranteed one of Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, or Baker Mayfield. In my opinion, every one of these guys would be a better fit for Cleveland. The only one out of that list that concerns me a bit is Darnold, who turned the ball over 22 times in his last season at USC and may not be ready to start right away in the NFL. That said, I love Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield at 4th overall for the Browns. People are comparing him to Johnny Manziel, which is a fair comparison given Mayfield’s alleged attitude problems, Heisman, and style of play. But I think that Mayfield is a much better on-the-field competitor, and his work ethic is much better than Manziel’s was when he was coming out of college. In addition to that, Mayfield hasn’t been in the news nearly as much as Manziel for off-the-field issues, which is always something NFL scouts look to avoid.
This leads me to the player that the Browns should take No. 1 overall: Saquon Barkley. I hopped on board the Barkley hype train a while ago and haven’t looked back since. I truly believe that this former Penn State bulldozer is exactly what everyone is saying he’s going to be: a generational talent. Even if Barkley isn’t “the closest thing to Marshall Faulk [we’ve] ever seen” (NFL analyst Matt Miller), the Browns would be idiotic to let him slip through their grips and fall to the Giants.
Just look at all of the running backs drafted top 10 since 2015: Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, and Todd Gurley. Each one has been impressive in his first NFL season(s). The suggestion that Saquon Barkley will be the NFL’s next great back is supported by his freakish stature and statistics: 5’11 and 230, 1679 all purpose yards per season, 51 total touchdowns in three seasons, and 5.7 rushing YPC. I believe he can absolutely put up similar numbers playing for the Browns (crazy, I know); their well-paid offensive line is one of the top in the league according to Pro Football Focus.
Another quibble I have with Kiper’s mock draft is that he projected the Broncos would take Sam Darnold fifth overall. I take issue with this for several reasons. First, I outlined in one of my previous blogs that the Broncos should and likely will sign Kirk Cousins come free agency. Obviously, it’s not Mel Kiper’s job (in this context) to speculate whether or not the Broncos will make a run at Kirk Cousins, but even so, I think the Broncos picking Sam Darnold would be a mistake. Darnold simply isn’t ready to start in the NFL yet, and the Broncos need an immediate fix at QB. I actually really like the Broncos drafting Alabama wideout Calvin Ridley fifth overall with the possible release of Demaryius Thomas on the horizon.
On the Giants’ side of things, I like them to take a quarterback like Darnold, Allen, or Rosen. New York has the second overall pick, and, after Barkley goes to the Browns, I think it would be a smart investment to draft a QB who might not be ready to start right away but could use a year on the bench behind a guy like Eli Manning. By the way, Eli still has some left in the tank and should bounce back next year under Pat Shurmur, as ~TB wrote about recently. Personally, I think Darnold has the highest long-term upside and physical ability of the three, so the Giants should go with him if the Browns wake up and draft Barkley first.
Since I know you’ve all been requesting it for a while now, here is my official 2018 NFL Mock First Round Draft 1.0:
Browns - RB Saquon Barkley (Penn State)
Giants - QB Sam Darnold (USC)
Colts - DE Bradley Chubb (NC State)
Browns - QB Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)
Broncos - WR Calvin Ridley (Alabama)
Jets - QB Josh Allen (Wyoming)
Buccaneers - DB Minkah Fitzpatrick (Alabama)
Bears - G Quenton Nelson (Notre Dame)
49ers - LB Tremaine Edmunds (Virginia Tech)
Raiders - LB Roquan Smith (Georgia)
Dolphins - QB Josh Rosen (UCLA)
Bengals - DB Josh Jackson (Iowa)
Redskins - DB Denzel Ward (Ohio State)
Packers - DE Marcus Davenport (Texas-San Antonio)
Cardinals - QB Lamar Jackson (Louisville)
Ravens - OT Kolton Miller (UCLA)
Chargers - S Derwin James (Florida State)
Seahawks - OT Mike McGlinchey (Notre Dame)
Cowboys - DT Vita Vea (Washington)
Lions - RB Derrius Guice (LSU)
Bills - DT Da’Ron Payne (Alabama)
Bills - CB Mike Hughes (Central Florida)
Rams - LB Malik Jefferson (Texas)
Panthers - OT Orlando Brown (Oklahoma)
Titans - G Will Hernandez (UTEP)
Falcons - DT Taven Bryan (Florida)
Saints - WR James Washington (OSU)
Steelers - LB Leighton Vander Esch (Boise State)
Jaguars - TE Mark Andrews (Oklahoma)
Vikings - CB Isaiah Oliver (Colorado)
Patriots - CB Donte Jackson (LSU)
Eagles - WR Christian Kirk (Texas A&M)
Mel Kiper hasn’t been right for a while; this is the same guy who, eight years ago, promised to retire if Jimmy Clausen wasn’t a successful NFL quarterback by 2018. Might be time to hang it up, Mel––there’s a new sheriff in town.
(Photo via Chris McGrath/Getty Images)
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