Around the NBA media landscape, a consensus seems to have formed that LeBron James is going to ditch the old, overpaid Cavaliers for greener pastures in Los Angeles, Houston, or Philadelphia. Unfortunately for the rest of the league, this assumption is the biggest error in conventional wisdom since November 8, 2016.
It’s important to preface all of this with the fact that no one knows for sure where LeBron James will sign his next contract--not even LeBron himself. Nor can anyone predict exactly how he’ll weigh various factors. However, LeBron is clearly after two things: competitiveness and legacy. James wants to compete for an NBA title while cementing his legacy as one of the top two players of all time. So where can he best fulfill these objectives?
Let’s start with the Los Angeles Lakers, the most popular choice as The King’s next destination. LeBron knows that, despite his continued dominance, Father Time always wins, and thus he needs a strong supporting cast that’s ready to compete. The Lakers don’t have that cast; Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, and Kyle Kuzma are all talented young players, but none are ready for primetime competition, and none are close to stardom. Of course, the presumption has been that Paul George will jump ship in Oklahoma City to join LeBron in Los Angeles. But George looks comfortable with Westbrook and Carmelo in Oklahoma City, and if he stays there, which established star will join LeBron on a Lakers team that had no all-stars this year? Furthermore, is a Lakers team with George and James really competitive in the West? Do they really leapfrog the Warriors, Rockets, and Spurs (not to mention the Timberwolves, Thunder, Trail Blazers, and Nuggets)? I don’t see it. It’s also difficult to see LeBron in Los Angeles because there, no matter how well he plays, he will never be the greatest player in Lakers history. Unfortunately for Lakers faithful, the argument that Los Angeles makes sense for LeBron has more holes in it than Isaiah Thomas’ defense.
What about the Houston Rockets? This year, they are sitting just under the salary cap, so they’d have to give up significant pieces to clear space and offer James a max deal. This is a dealbreaker because LeBron James has learned in the past three NBA Finals that he cannot beat the Warriors (even with two other stars) on a thin team. Furthermore, Houston already has James Harden and Chris Paul, two very high usage and high maintenance stars. Even if the three could fit together, LeBron wants to be the number one guy and the unchallenged leader, which he’ll never be on James Harden’s team. The Rockets thus fail on competitiveness and legacy: no blast off to Houston.
Finally, and potentially the best fit, let’s talk about the Philadelphia 76ers. Philadelphia seems to have struck gold in Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. The 76ers core is young but experienced enough to compete right now, and they have the cap space. However, it’s uncertain whether LeBron would fit with Embiid, Simmons, Markelle Fultz (if he ever appears), and Philly’s 2018 first round pick from the Lakers. Furthermore, it’s doubtful that LeBron would have the power as the center of the team in Philadelphia that he does in Cleveland. Admittedly, I see the 76ers as the most logical option, but it’s still an unlikely scenario for The King.
Ultimately, the reason LeBron will likely stay lies not in the flaws of other teams but rather in the Cavs’ upside, and this is where we return to the “old, overpaid Cavaliers.” Is that an accurate picture? Not really. The Cavs do have some underperforming veterans on bad contracts, specifically JR Smith and Tristan Thompson. These deals definitely constrain the Cavs, and neither player is fulfilling expectations. However, J.R. Smith, though not a souperstar, can switch it on in crunch time and has been playing better since the trade deadline. Beyond those two, where are the “old, overpaid Cavs”? Kyle Korver is 36, but he’s been effective as a three point specialist off the bench and has only one more year guaranteed at $7.5m. George Hill, 31, is a defensively capable point guard with significant playoff experience and three point shooting ability who remains productive. Beyond them? Larry Nance Jr., Jordan Clarkson, and Rodney Hood are all 25 years old and in their primes. Clarkson and Hood can create their own shots and consistently make threes, and Nance adds energy and size on defense and in the paint. Clarkson and Nance are both controllable past this season, and Hood is a restricted free agent. Adding to their youth movement, the Cavs also have rookies Cedi Osman, who has shown himself to be a capable defender and three point shooter this season, and Ante Zizic, who’s been gaining experience in the G League. Cleveland will also have the opportunity to pick its next star with the 2018 unprotected Brooklyn Nets pick, which looks to fall around 6-8 but continues to improve as the Nets slide down the standings.
Crucially, the Cavaliers also have Kevin Love, oft-forgotten third man in the LeBron-Kyrie-Kevin juggernaut. Kevin Love is an all-star forward/center who can create his own shot, initiate the offense, shoot from the outside, and, most importantly, partner with LeBron. Despite claims that the two don’t get along well, Love has held on and played extremely well in Cleveland, mastering the art of playing alongside The King. This year, he was averaging 20+ points before Isaiah Thomas returned. With LeBron and Love surrounded by a core of veterans, a number of capable players in their primes, and several promising rookies, the Cavs’ upside on the court is high. LeBron can also count owner Dan Gilbert to continually pay record-high luxury tax to keep the Cavs competitive. James may not like Gilbert, but he can work with him, and that’s what matters.
The final upside for LeBron is his legacy. People are quick to cite that he has already delivered on his promise to bring Cleveland a title. It is also often referenced that LeBron has a house in LA and acting aspirations. Even if that’s true, a player of James’ stature doesn’t need to play in LA to have his movie career, and LeBron’s family is in Ohio, not LA. Furthermore, he’s from Akron, Ohio, and has become heavily involved with business and community organizations in Cleveland and Akron. LeBron has enmeshed himself in Northeast Ohio and has regularly spoken about his commitment to the area. LeBron has never been quiet, but he also doesn’t mouth off randomly--he generally means what he says. If he leaves, he has been misrepresenting himself for years, which seems unlikely not only based on his track record but also because of the damage it would do to his legacy and relationships. He is beloved in Cleveland, with an owner willing to spend, a coach he likes, and a team built completely around him. Where else can he replicate that? Nowhere. He can’t be The King anywhere else like he is in Cleveland. LeBron’s career started in The Land, and all indications are that it’s where he’ll stay.
(Cap figures courtesy of spotrac.com)
Written by Jakob Levin, Concord MA
Want to be featured on the Guest Blog? Message us at Third and Long on Facebook.
Comments