The 2018 NFL Draft begins tomorrow evening, and there’s a lot to get to from the Pats to the Browns.
Here we go:
What Should The Patriots Do?
The Patriots enter the draft with a massive amount of early-round capital. After the Brandin Cooks trade, they now have two first-round picks (#23 and #31), along with two second-round picks, (#43 and #63). While that sounds all fine and dandy, this is not a normal draft for the Patriots. This one really, really matters, both for right now and for the future. Consider this: The Patriots have devastating holes on the offensive line (thanks to Nate Solder’s departure), defensive line, and linebacker, and they need a successor to Tom Brady. It's not often that the Patriots have so much riding on one draft. So what should they do? Well, there are a few options:
Option #1: Trade up for a QB
Moving up in the draft for a QB could come in two ways. The first is that the Pats trade up only a few spots to get a guy like Lamar Jackson, who they’ve reportedly been interested in. Such a move probably wouldn’t take very much--maybe something to the effect of #23 and either their third- or fourth-rounder to move up into the teens. Should they have to give up more than that to get Jackson, I would encourage them to do it only if they really feel he’s the next face of the franchise. However, I’m personally quite skeptical of Lamar Jackson. The NFL is a QB-driven league. We all know this. Get a franchise guy at all costs.
The second and more dramatic way this could go down is if the Patriots packaged #23 and #32 and whatever else is necessary to move up into the top 3, or even #1 overall. At the moment, it appears that the likes of Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, and Sam Darnold are all in the conversation for being taken within in the first 3 picks. My take is this: If the Pats can get Mayfield for those two first-rounders, then they should do it. Otherwise, I think it’d be smart to wait until the second round and draft a Lauletta or a Rudolph and get a talent who can contribute right away with those two first-round picks.
Of course, if they can get Rosen in the late single-digits or early teens at a reasonable price, I would strongly support that move.
Option #2: Wait for a QB
As I mentioned, I don’t think it’s a bad idea at all for the Patriots to use #23 and #32 on guys who can contribute significantly this season and fill the massive holes the Patriots have, and then draft a QB in the second or third round. Lauletta, Rudolph, and Falk should all be on the board post-first round.
Option #3: The Jim Murray Option
Jim Murray of the Felger and Mazz show has advocated for the Patriots to not draft any quarterbacks in this draft and simply focus on surrounding Brady with as much talent as possible right now.
This is my least favorite of the three options.
First of all, the Patriots need a successor to Tom Brady. There will come a time when someone other than Brady will be playing quarterback for the Patriots, and that time is rapidly approaching. This much we know, so why go through one of the deepest drafts for QBs in history without getting that guy? That concept really doesn’t make sense to me.
The Cleveland Browns need to trade either #1 or #4. I don’t think they will, because the Browns are incredibly stupid, but they really should.
They need a quarterback. If they won’t just take Mayfield #1, as I humbly recommend, then trading the first overall pick isn’t a bad idea at all. They’ll get a pretty massive haul for it, as one would imagine, and Cleveland will still get a highly-rated QB with its fourth pick.
On the flip side, if the Browns decide they want to use their first overall selection on a QB then they absolutely should trade #4 overall because not doing so is a bit of a waste. There are teams who are desperate to get up into the top 5 so they can have their shot at a franchise quarterback; why not indulge them? Trade back, accumulate more picks, and use them to continue building your borderline playoff team. That is my advice to the Browns.
What Should the Giants Do at #2?
It has been rumored for quite some time that the Giants are interested in Saquon Barkley, and that definitely wouldn’t be a bad pick. I’m a big fan of Saquon, but the debate as to what the Giants should do really comes down to what they want. Win now or build for the future? That is the question at hand.
If the Giants are interested in making a Super Bowl run in Eli Manning’s final years, then they absolutely need to draft Barkley. An offense with Manning, Barkley, and Beckham Jr. would be electric--potentially one of the best offensive units in football.
That all sounds nice, but how good of a shot do the Giants actually have at winning a title in the next couple years, even with Saquon? They have to contend with the defending champs in Philly plus the Cowboys and Giants just in their division. As of right now, the favorites to win their respective divisions are probably the Eagles, Vikings, Rams, and Saints. This means that the 49ers, Panthers, Packers, Falcons, and others will all be fighting for the final two spots in the playoffs.
It seems awfully risky for the Giants to choose a measly shot at contending for a title over a potential franchise QB, which is why I think the Giants should take a quarterback second.
Saquon Barkley is awesome, but the Giants shouldn’t sign away their future for him, or any other non-QB for that matter.
The Draft’s QBs:
As you would expect, most of the discussion going into Thursday’s festivities are focused on the quarterbacks.
Personally, my favorite QB in this draft is Baker Mayfield. Yeah, he’s shorter than the average NFL quarterback, but do you know who’s even shorter than him? Russell Wilson. And how has “short” Russell Wilson worked out for the Seahawks? The reality is that Mayfield’s best attribute is that he is incredible throwing on the run, and the stats back up that assertion. After being debunked on Mayfield’s level of play, many people jump to criticize Mayfield’s personality; they say he’s arrogant and all sorts of other things. Well, you know what? The guy is an incredible competitor and a confident winner. I’ll take my chances with him over “rocket arm” Josh Allen and the rest of the 2018 QB class.
Speaking of Mr. Allen, the most controversial of the draft’s QB class, I am firmly against any team drafting him early, and it’s not because I think he’ll absolutely be a bust. In fact, I get what people are saying when they rant and rave about his physical attributes. Sure, it can get a bit nauseating and it’s amusing to make fun of, but Josh Allen really does have a historically strong arm and other qualities that make offensive gurus drool. So why am I so opposed to the Browns or someone else taking him at the top of the draft? Well, as most analysts will admit, Josh Allen is very raw. He’s going to take time to develop, and I really don’t see anyone at the top of the draft who has the ability to be patient with him. Josh Allen could be a very special player, but for that to happen, he’ll need to land somewhere that already has a good veteran QB, the right system, and a competent coach.
In regards to the others, I really like Josh Rosen. He’s probably the best pure passer in the draft, though his injury history is a major concern. That fact, along with his lack of mobility, puts him below Mayfield in my opinion. As for Sam Darnold, I think he’s a good pick, but not ahead of Mayfield or Rosen. Guys that’ll be picked a bit later in the draft include Lamar Jackson, Mason Rudolph, and Kyle Lauletta. All three seem to be tied to the Patriots. The two latter QBs would be nice options for the Patriots if they opt to wait until the second or third round to draft a quarterback. In regards to the former, I’m not the biggest Jackson fan in the world. I think he’s better than some analysts do (i.e. those that say he should just convert to WR like Terrelle Pryor, which is a ridiculous suggestion), but I also think he’s not as good as a guy like DeShaun Watson, to whom Jackson has been compared at an astounding rate. Lamar Jackson is not DeShaun Watson. His accuracy and overall passing ability is well below Watson’s college numbers.
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