With the main portion of free agency long since passed and the NFL Draft having concluded, fantasy football prognostication can now enter into full gear.
Here are my updated 2018 Fantasy Football Rankings:
Quarterbacks:
Aaron Rodgers
Deshaun Watson
Carson Wentz
Tom Brady (+2)
Russell Wilson (-1)
Cam Newton (-1)
Philip Rivers (+3)
Drew Brees (+1)
Andrew Luck (NR)
Matt Ryan (NR)
Matthew Stafford (-4)
Jimmy Garoppolo
Analysis:
We see a great deal of stability at the top with A-Rod, Watson, and Carson Wentz in the top 3. Of course, some might question my placement of two players coming off of torn ACLs in the first three slots, and I fully understand the concern, but all reports seem to suggest that Watson will certainly be back for Week 1 and Wentz is likely to return then as well. Even if Wentz misses the first week or two, he wouldn’t drop very far in the rankings, as you could simply draft Nick Foles to fill in until Wentz returns.
Tom Brady, previously ranked #6, has risen to #4 after the Patriots had a solid draft. They added Georgia RB Sony Michel, which should shore up the rushing attack and keep defenses honest. Most importantly, the Pats added OL Isaiah Wynn, which will help a depleted offensive line. Some may voice objections to Brady not being higher on this list, and my preemptive answer to those criticisms is that Brady is getting older and he--like many older players--tends to decline as the season goes on in terms of fantasy production. For example, Tom failed to score 16 points or more in the final 5 weeks of last season, including 2 outings in single digits (just ask Tucker).
Philip Rivers has jumped up a bit in the rankings after the Chargers’ draft. I loved the pick of safety Derwin James at #17, which further improves LA’s defense. The key to Rivers’ fantasy success is not having a garbage defense. Yes, it may seem like Big Phil being down a ton and forced to pass would be good for his production, but it actually increases his volatility, as he tends to throw picks at the end of games trying desperately to get his horrible team back into the game. Now the Chargers have a solid squad, and Rivers is ready to shine in the twilight of his career.
Matt Ryan has jumped up from “not ranked” to #10 as a result of Atlanta’s addition of WR Calvin Ridley. Jones, Ridley, and Sanu should make for a solid WR corps. That plus the fact that Atlanta is no longer coming off a horrible Super Bowl loss bodes well for Matty Ice’s fantasy stock for this season.
It appears that Andrew Luck will be healthy and ready to go come Week 1, and the Colts just added a stud offensive lineman and had a fantastic draft. Luck is ready for a comeback season.
Running Backs:
Todd Gurley
Alvin Kamara (+4)
Le’Veon Bell (+1)
David Johnson (-2)
Kareem Hunt
Ezekiel Elliot (-3)
Leonard Fournette
Saquon Barkley (+4)
Dalvin Cook (-1)
Melvin Gordon (-1)
LeSean McCoy (NR)
Jordan Howard (-2)
Analysis:
Todd Gurley is easily #1 for me. Many so-called “experts” have Le’Veon Bell ahead of him, but how can we ignore the fact that Gurley put up over 80 points in the fantasy semifinals and title game last year? The guy is a big-time player.
Alvin Kamara has the biggest bump, mostly as a result of Mark Ingram’s 4-game suspension due to PED use. Kamara is already a strong RB1 with Ingram in the mix, but now you get a quarter of the season without the Alabama alumni in the backfield, which means even more touches for the extremely efficient Kamara. I’m a huge fan of Kamara going into this season.
Saquon Barkley comes in at #8 in the rankings, but he easily could end up as a top-3 option. The Giants are a perfect fit for him; Eli, Barkley, Odell, Shepard, etc. pose a scary threat for opposing defenses. Without question, he’s this year’s Leonard Fournette/Zeke Elliott.
The Bills drafted Josh Allen. They’re gonna need to run a ton. McCoy gets a bounce into RB1 territory after missing the cut narrowly last time out.
Wide Receivers:
Josh Gordon
DeAndre Hopkins
Antonio Brown
Odell Beckham Jr.
T.Y. Hilton (+2)
Julio Jones (+2)
Keenan Allen (-1)
Davante Adams (-3)
A.J Green
Stefon Diggs (NR)
Michael Thomas
Allen Robinson (NR)
Analysis:
Josh Gordon is a Hall-of-Famer, and I believe that from this season on he will show it week in and week out. I have a message to all of you Josh Gordon skeptics out there: Get ready to be destroyed, embarrassed, and pantsed by the GOAT.
T.Y. gets a nice bump here, as Andrew Luck’s health continues to improve and the Colts had a fantastic draft. I’m expecting that T.Y will have a massive bounce-back year.
Stefon Diggs is a WR1, and Adam Thielen is definitely in the mix as well, especially since the Vikings signed Kirk Cousins. Diggs was the hero of the Divisional Round last year, and he’ll be the hero of the 2018 season for Minnesota.
I originally wasn’t a fan of Allen Robinson signing with the Bears, but now I’ve warmed to it a bit. I think he has the talent to get back into the WR1 realm, which he was firmly in during the 2015 season.
Closing Tip: Draft Jerick McKinnon. You won’t regret it.
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