Coming into the 2018 Western Conference Finals, many were touting the Warriors-Rockets matchup as the clash of titans we’d waited all year to see. I was certainly excited to see the two square off; I figured that, even if the Rockets didn’t pull it out, it’d at least be a competitive series that went six or seven games.
Well, Game 1 showed me that the talent gap between Houston and Golden State is more of a chasm than it is a crack. On Monday, Harden dropped 41 points, Chris Paul chipped in 23, and Clint Capela offered a less-than-ideal 12. In arguing that Houston has a real chance to win this series, many point to these numbers and say that we can expect better contributions from Harden’s supporting cast. But that’s not entirely true: Harden, Capela, and Paul (who contributed 76 points total in Game 1) averaged a combined 62.9 PPG this season. Eric Gordon, another key piece for Houston, wasn’t bad either, coming up just three points shy of his 18 PPG average this year. All things considered, it appears that the ancillary players (i.e. P.J. Tucker, Trevor Ariza, and Gerald Green) are the ones who lacked in Game 1, and relying on those guys isn’t a great bet for the one-seeded Rockets.
Additionally, the Rockets were atrocious defensively, surrendering 119 points on 42-80 shooting (compared to their 39-85). In contrast to the Rockets’ seven, only one player in the Warriors’ rotation (Draymond Green) averaged under 50% from the field. The Dubs also shot nearly 40% from beyond the arc on 33 attempts--not a small sample size. These numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, as Golden State possesses an uber-talented roster, but anyone who watched the game knows that there were far too many easy buckets given up thanks to a lack of effort on Houston’s side. As Austin mentioned in his recent series preview, James Harden needs to lead the charge on defense, and he didn’t do that on Monday.
The second explanation for the Warriors’ offensive dominance is that they’re simply that good. Consider that, in a game that Curry scored only 18 points (and looked sub-100%) and Draymond Green only poured in 5 points, the Warriors won by 13--Durant was unguardable, and Klay stepped up with 28. There are just too many layers, and despite the incredible talent on the Houston roster, Golden State is light years ahead. Add to this the fact that the Rockets lost Game 1 on home court. Even if Houston grabs Game 2, chances are the Dubs won’t drop one at home--Golden State happens to be 6-0 at Oracle Arena this postseason.
The only legitimate chance the Rockets had in this series was if they’d gone 2-0 in the first two contests. Golden State is just too good, especially relative to the Rockets’ defense, for the Rockets to have any chance in this series. James Harden can have as many 40-point games as he wants, but unless he decides to play defense and Clint Capela turns into Shaquille O’Neal, the Rockets will be done in five or six games max. I’d bet on a Golden State sweep (because, you know, betting is legal now) before I bet on a Houston series win.
(Stats via Basketball Reference)
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