Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, and Leonard Fournette. These are the names of all the running backs who were drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft since 2015. Recognize any? The NFL has seen almost unprecedented success out of its most recent first-round RBs––all these guys have reached 1,000 all-purpose yards at least once in their young careers.
This year, there were three RBs selected in the first round. The New York Giants nabbed former Penn State phenom Saquon Barkley with the second overall selection, Seattle decided to reach on San Diego State product Rashaad Penny, and the Patriots surprised by drafting Georgia tailback Sony Michel––Belichick's first first-round RB since Laurence Maroney in 2006. So, what should we expect from the league’s newest backfield additions? More importantly: What should Patriots fans expect from Tom Brady’s new backfield companion?
Well, to put it bluntly, not too much. The analysis of Sony Michel is as follows:
“Michel is a well-built, no-nonsense runner who is able to combine vision, burst, and physicality. While he can make open field cuts to find additional yardage, his running style is more angular in nature and he thrives when playing north-south. He's not the most creative runner and he lacks some finesse, but his size, pass protection and ability to create yardage make him a natural fit as a future NFL starter.” (NFL Analyst Lance Zierlein)
Me saying “don’t expect much” isn’t to say Sony Michel will fail; I actually think he’ll be very successful in the Patriots system. It’s just to say that he may not reach the high bar that’s been set by Gurley, Fournette, and Co.
NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock has compared Michel to 2017 Offensive Rookie of the Year Alvin Kamara, but, unfortunately, I wouldn’t expect the same level of production out of Sony Michel in his first year for a few reasons.
First, the Patriots like to utilize a modified RBBC (running back by committee) approach when it comes to doling out carries; even analysts often don’t know what to expect out of the New England backfield on any given Sunday. Last year, it was typically Dion Lewis as the first- and second-down back, James White as the third-down pass catcher, and Rex Burkhead as the change-of-pace RB.
Second, as of now, the Pats’ backfield is a little more crowded––Sony Michel joins newly-acquired Jeremy Hill and last year’s slew of Rex Burkhead, James White, and a healthy Mike Gillislee. Not only are all of these backs talented and capable, but many of them have already found success in the Belichick system: James White was the unofficial Super Bowl LI MVP and Burkhead had a very productive season last year, finding the end zone 8 times.
While the backfield roster will likely be trimmed down come August, it appears that touches may be hard to come by this year. Also, in the excitement of the draft, it seems people have forgotten about a guy named Jeremy Hill. At only 25 years old, Hill is certainly capable of returning to his rookie form (1,124 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs) behind a significantly more talented offensive line than Cincinnati's. That is, if he even makes the roster.
The chances Michel succeeds in Belichick’s system are high. Bill is drawn towards leaders with high charisma. Sony Michel fits that mold, as he was a captain at Georgia and has been described as a highly respected and vocal leader. It’s very likely that Michel takes over as the no. 1 back, a position that allowed LeGarrette Blount to score 18 TDs two years ago and Dion Lewis to garner 1,110 APY and 9 all-purpose TDs last season. However, it’s also possible that Bill throws us for a loop and plays him as the change-of-pace back, letting him get acclimated to NFL-style running.
All in all, I’d temper expectations for Sony Michel’s rookie year; it’s better to be pleasantly surprised than disappointed.
(Stats via Pro Football Reference)
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