It’s well documented that NFL players often experience a “sophomore slump,” defined as a regression in their second year as a pro following a highly successful rookie season. A similar phenomenon also occurs with breakout teams, but the reasons for full-on team regressions are infrequently discussed and more nuanced.
Although a rookie may burst onto the NFL scene, most NFL coaches are able to neutralize the young player's impact more effectively in year two after having the benefit of an offseason to review film. Usually, the players make their own adjustments to these changes, but the time required to do so often leads to the characteristic “slump” in year two. Some standout rookies, such as quarterback Robert Griffin III, never overcome this slump and fail to return to their rookie performance level.
A similar phenomenon also occurs with breakout teams, but the reasons for full-on team regressions are infrequently discussed and more nuanced. Prior to the 2017 NFL season, Cowboys vs. Raiders was not an unpopular pick for Super Bowl LII. After all, both teams were coming off 12+ win seasons and were led by a bevy of young, talented players. The Raiders had Derek Carr and Khalil Mack coming off of Pro Bowl and All Pro seasons respectively, while the Cowboys boasted the league’s two most dynamic rookies in Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott.
In 2017, the two teams combined for a 15-17 record, with neither sniffing the playoffs. These disappointing seasons left players and fans alike scratching their heads wondering what on Earth happened.
At first glance, we can point to many of the same reasons as we do for a player’s individual slump: coaches catching up on film, unrealistic expectations, and an increase in responsibility. There are other underlying reasons for a team’s slump, however, and these differ from team to team. They can include suspensions, a combination of player regressions, or free agency departures; however, There is one factor that is common among teams that regress after a breakout year: the change in their schedule.
The success of an NFL team during one season actually affects the difficulty of its schedule during the next. Every year, the 16 game NFL schedule is built using the same formula: 6 division games, 4 games against a rotating division in the opposite conference, 4 games against a rotating division in one’s own conference, and 2 games against opponents who finished with the same standing in their respective divisions.
Let’s unpack what that means. Every year, two games of the regular season are determined by the strength of one’s team from the previous season. The Cowboys finished 4-12 in 2015, which put them in last place in the NFC East. This meant that in 2016, they played 2 other last place teams from their conference. Thus, after a breakout year, a team’s schedule greatly increases in difficulty because those 2 games against last place teams are now played against two first place teams. For the Cowboys, this meant that games against the San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2016 turned into games against the Packers and Falcons in 2017. The Cowboys won both of those games in 2016 and lost both in 2017.
The worst to first schedule change is drastic; in the AFC, it is the difference between playing the Browns and Jets or playing the Patriots and Steelers. In the NFL, whose short season already places a massive importance on each game, two games is the difference between a mediocre 8-8 season with no real playoff shot and a solid 10-6 season with legitimate playoff hopes and even Super Bowl aspirations.
Given the evidently massive effect of a schedule change on a breakout team’s sophomore slump, let’s examine the breakout teams of 2017. First, the Jacksonville Jaguars climbed from worst to first, improving their record from 3-13 to 10-6, not including their two playoff wins this season. Similarly, the Rams improved from 4-12 to 11-5, leading the league in scoring offense en route to a division title. Though the enthusiasm surrounding each team is understandably high in 2017, one look at their schedule changes indicates that fans should pump the breaks. Though both teams should have good seasons next year, expect at least one of them to take several steps back in 2018.
(Photos Via Inside the Star and Sports Illustrated)
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