As we approach March, many in the sports world are looking to what’s ahead. While March Madness is of course the first thing that comes to mind for most people, some NFL fans have March 14th circled on their calendar: the day NFL free agency begins.
This year, not unlike any other, there are some notable players around the league who plan on signing the dotted line within the next few months. Some of these names include Drew Brees, Le’Veon Bell, Malcolm Butler, Demarcus Lawrence, Allen Robinson, and Kirk Cousins. For the purposes of this blog, we’re going to leave out defensive players. We’re also going to ignore free agents who, according to every current report, plan on re-signing with their current team. Now, of the noteworthy 2018 free agents, we’re left with Kirk Cousins.
Kirk Cousins is an interesting story but a good one. Here’s a (not so) quick summary: Cousins was drafted by the Washington Redskins in the 4th round of the 2012 NFL Draft behind fellow rookie and teammate Robert Griffin III. Cousins spent his first two NFL seasons learning alongside RGIII in the film room but behind him on the depth chart while Griffin tore up the field. Luckily for Cousins, while RGIII tore up the field, he also tore up his legs. So, after Week 1 of the 2014 season when Griffin went down with an ankle injury, Cousins was handed the starting gig… and blew it. After winning in his first NFL regular season appearance, Cousins and the Redskins lost four of their next five games before Jay Gruden replaced Cousins with Colt McCoy. A week later, RGII replaced McCoy and finished out the season, losing 7 out of the team’s last 9 games. The Redskins finished the 2014 season 4-14, but it appeared that Kirk Cousins was the least of three evils that season.
Then, in August of 2015, the Redskins named Cousins starter over Robert Griffin III––a move that would ultimately turn the franchise around. It turned out that Cousins was a pro-bowl talent all along and just needed some grooming and time to learn. He proceeded to lead the team to two straight winning seasons for the first time since 1996-1997.
Fast forward to today, where Kirk Cousins––along with many hopeful football fans––await March 14th and the resolution of impending rumors, contract offers, and possible transactions. Because the Redskins traded for Alex Smith this past offseason, Kirk Cousins must look for a new home. There are currently six NFL teams who have shown potential interest in Kirk Cousins: the Vikings, Browns, Broncos, Jaguars, Jets, and Cardinals. I’m here to break down each potential landing spot for you, so that you can make an informed decision on where you think Cousins will end up.
Vikings: Coming off an NFC Championship loss to the Eagles, Minnesota is certainly one of the quarterback-neediest teams in the NFL. All three of the Vikings’ active quarterbacks last season––Case Keenum, Teddy Bridgewater, and Sam Bradford––will become free agents in three weeks. Will they make a push at a shiny new piece in Kirk Cousins? My guess is no. The Vikings’ issues in the Championship game were certainly not exclusively a function of quarterback play. In fact, Case Keenum played very well all season and led Minnesota to their first NFC title game since 2009. Regardless of where he lands, can Keenum be expected to replicate the 2017 season next year? Absolutely not. However, I do anticipate the Vikings will go with who they know and re-sign either Case Keenum or Teddy Bridgewater.
Browns: This one is a little more complicated. The Cleveland Browns have infamously gone 1-31 in the past two NFL seasons and are planning on sticking with the same coach who led them to those thirty-one losses. This recent history does not make for a very attractive sales pitch by any stretch of the imagination––shocking, I know. On the other hand, some people would argue that the Browns are likely to turn things around with the 1st and 4th overall picks in the 2018 NFL Draft. If you’re Kirk Cousins and the Browns can offer you a lot of money, a solid offensive line, and some dangerous offensive weapons in Saquon Barkley and Josh Gordon, maybe you take the bait and buy into the chatter about a new Browns franchise. Or maybe you don’t want to sign a long-term deal with a team that hasn’t finished a season with a winning record since 2007. Maybe you look past the individual pieces and wince at the sight of the same head coach and the same GM who have fostered patently terrible football in recent years. If I were Kirk Cousins, I’d say no thank you. Frankly, if I were the Browns, I’d say no thank you and grab a quarterback in the first round––it has to work at some point.
Broncos: For a while now, it’s seemed as though the Broncos were favorites to sign Cousins and that the waiting was merely a formality. Now, the Broncos seem to have fallen behind in the race for Kirk. To me, Cousins to the Broncos has always made the most sense; Denver, it seems, could be a borderline playoff team every year thanks to a great defense, but the egregious trio of terror that has been Brock Osweiler, Trevor Siemian, and Paxton Lynch isn’t cutting it. Cousins appears to be a quarterback who wants to win, and the Broncos could offer stability in that department with a reliable quarterback. If money is the issue, which it seems to be with Kirky, I believe the Broncos should match the price of next highest bidder (see Jets), because who knows when the next franchise quarterback will come around for Denver. Broncos’ GM John Elway is no stranger to big free agent QB signings; in 2012, he reeled in Peyton Manning with a five year, $96 million contract.
Jaguars: After recently extending Blake Bortles’s contract, the Jaguars are faced with a question: is it worth going after Cousins for $10 million per year more than they’re already paying Bortles? The answer, of course, is yes. If I’m Jacksonville, I’m paying what I can to get the best quarterback available; as much as I love my fellow Stoolie Blake Bortles, he has not been good enough to make the Jaguars serious Super Bowl contenders. An incredibly impressive defense and some scarce offensive production led the 2017 Jags to the AFC title game, but if they want a shot at dethroning the Pats in the AFC, I believe they need a legit quarterback. I’m not trying to make Kirk Cousins out to seem like the second coming of God here; I’m simply saying he’s a significant upgrade from what Jacksonville has now––which is precisely why I’m even writing about him.
Jets: The New York Jets are looking like your classic case of desperate spending. Reports have come out that the Jets are willing to give Cousins $60 million in the first year of his contract. Oh my God would this turn the NFL on its head. At this point, if you’re Kirk Cousins, you have to weigh a lot of things. Do you like winning as much as it appears you did when you said “you like that!” or are you in it for the money? Go ahead, say you’re in it for the money. Hell, I’d take $60 million up front if it meant I’d never win another football game in my life. Not all quarterbacks are in it for the fame and glory, Kirk. Go for it. And to New York: what are you, out of your minds? Are you really willing to break every bank in New York and completely change the NFL QB market forever for Kirk Cousins? Hate to break it to you, Jets, but Kirk Cousins––pro-bowler or not––isn’t going solve all of your problems, and you might need some money left over in order to do that.
Arizona: I tossed the Cardinals in here because they’ve come up briefly in conversation about interest in Cousins, but I truly believe the Cards have no shot at landing him. Arizona has always fared well with signing veteran quarterbacks such as Kurt Warner and Carson Palmer, so it would make sense to me that they continue this trend and sign a guy like Josh McCown, who is coming off a career year with the Jets.
Oh Kirk Cousins, where will you land? For the longest time, it appeared that the Broncos were a lock to sign Cousins, but now uncertainty has crept into the mind of every NFL analyst and fan alike. Do me a favor, Kirk; do the honorable thing and go to a Super Bowl contender. Your chances at a longer and more successful career would go hand in hand with more money if you did, rather than front-loading a contract with a crappy team.
My final prediction: Kirk Cousins will be a Bronco in 2018 and Denver will return to legitimacy with an AFC West title.
(Photo via USA Today Sports/Jake Roth)
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