It’s that time of the year again: Selection Sunday has passed, and millions across the country are scrambling to research where Murray State is, why Collin Sexton is so good at basketball, and how Oklahoma State didn’t make the field when Oklahoma did. But more importantly, they’re researching which teams can execute the opening round upsets, the magic of the 2-7 matchup in the round of 32, and the teams with the best draw to the Final Four.
Originally, my idea was to list a bunch of the rules and the format of the NCAA Tournament along with my analysis, but I figured that if you clicked on this, you’re probably already used to the madness that is March. Without further ado, let me break down the tournament by region and offer you many of my picks.
South Region
First Round Upsets: 2
(11) Loyola-Chicago over (6) Miami
Reasoning: Miami is 191st in the country in assists per game, 199th in rebounds per game, and 321st in FT%. Loyola-Chicago likes to space out and shoot threes, which they will do against Miami en route to an upset.
(7) Nevada over (10) Texas
Reasoning: You may think that this isn’t an upset, but Texas actually has a better chance to win (according to FiveThirtyEight and ESPN’s “People’s Bracket”). However, Texas came in dead last in my spreadsheet of the 68-team field, a scoring system that averages the teams’ rankings for assists per game, rebounds per game, FT%, and 3PT%. On the other hand, Nevada came in 6th place out of 68
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Interesting Potential Matchups: 3
(5) Kentucky vs. (4) Arizona
Reasoning: These teams are hot and should face each other in the second round. In the end, DeAndre Ayton will simply dominate and wear down whoever Kentucky throws at him. The Wildcats win.
(4) Arizona vs. (1) Virginia
Reasoning: Many people think that the winner of this game will go on to the Final Four, and each coach expects incredible discipline from his players. However, the ACC Tournament made me beleive in Virgina and its defense. The Cavaliers advance.
Note: UVA’s De’Andre Hunter is out for the tournament with a broken wrist. This is a significant blow to Virginia, who is now down to seven players who average at least 15 minutes per game. However, Arizona does not utilize its bench that much, which means that I’m sticking with Virginia.
(1) Virginia vs. (2) Cincinnati
Reasoning: Watching this game will be like watching two old-time fighters slugging it out inside a boxing ring: it’ll be ugly. Both teams utilize a stifling defense and a slow, deliberate tempo on offense. If you like to watch the pace and space of the NBA, this game is not for you.
South Region Elite Eight: Virginia over Cincinnati
East Region
First Round Upsets: 4
(9) Alabama over (8) Virginia Tech
Reasoning: Collin Sexton. (Yes, I know that Justin Robinson is nice, but c’mon now.)
(11) St. Bonaventure / UCLA over (6) Florida
Reasoning: Florida has limped into the tournament and is 46th out of 68 on my spreadsheet. St. Bonaventure is 24th on the spreadsheet and UCLA is 16th, led by Aaron Holiday and Thomas Welsh.
(14) Stephen F. Austin over (3) Texas Tech
Reasoning: This is my largest first round upset upset. In every year from 2013-2016, at least one 14 seed knocked off a 3 seed. Stephen F. Austin is a scrappy team that applies tons of pressure on its opponent and has had some recent tournament success. Plus, Texas Tech is an awful 3 seed in my opinion. They should be a 5 seed. The Red Raiders fall.
(7) Arkansas over (10) Butler
Reasoning: Once again, this is an unusual upset pick because Arkansas is the better seed. Arkansas has two good guards and boasts the 14th-best 3PT% in the nation. Razorbacks win.
Interesting Potential Matchups: 3
(1) Villanova vs. (9) Alabama
Reasoning: Villanova should win this game because it’s more balanced, more complete, and more consistent. However, there is a fighting chance that Collin Sexton puts the Crimson Tide on his back and just wills his way past ‘Nova. The supporting players for the Wildcats should be enough to get past the “Young Bull.”
(4) Wichita State vs. (5) West Virginia
Reasoning: If each team can win its opening game, which will be no easy task, then it’ll set up this matchup. Wichita State is top 10 in the nation in assists per game and rebounds per game and placed 2nd overall in my spreadsheet. Nonetheless, West Virginia will use its full-court, man-to-man press, and the only reliable ball handler that the Shockers have is Landry Shamet. The Mountaineers edge Wichita State.
(1) Villanova vs. (5) West Virginia
Reasoning: West Virginia will be motivated to reach the Elite 8, but Villanova will handle the pressure as a team, frustrating the Mountaineers. The Wildcats will advance at TD Garden.
East Region Elite Eight: Villanova over Purdue
Midwest Region
First Round Upsets: 2
(9) NC State over (8) Seton Hall
Reasoning: NC State is a quality team that’s battled-tested in the ACC. This team had a lot of time to think about its loss to Boston College in the ACC Quarterfinals, so I’m expecting them to come out with plenty of energy. Additionally, NC State has playmakers in Markell Johnson and Allerik Freeman.
(12) New Mexico State over (5) Clemson
Reasoning: I’ve never seen a Clemson game this year, and, despite the Tigers being ranked in the AP Top 25 for most of the season, I never thought that they were legitimate. New Mexico State does have the worst FT% of any team in the field, but the Pistol Petes are 10-2 in their last 12 games, 4th in the nation in rebounds per game, and have some dude named Zach Lofton who is apparently pretty good. This is the last Round of 64 game, starting at 9:57 p.m. on Friday night in San Diego, which is also much closer to New Mexico than it is to South Carolina.
Interesting Potential Matchups: 2
(2) Duke vs. (7) Rhode Island
Reasoning: Ah, yes, this was the one. There is always one game or potential game each year that causes me to twist and turn while trying to fall asleep on the night following the Selection Show. If you have read some of my previous columns for The Voice or have seen me in the halls wearing my URI sweatshirt, then you know that the Rhode Island is my favorite college team. Duke, by the way, is my second-favorite team. In this potential matchup, Duke will have a massive size and talent advantage. The Blue Devils have two top-10 picks in this year’s NBA Draft in Wendell Carter Jr. and Marvin Bagley III. However, even though this is quite a homer pick, I am going with my Rhode Island Rams. I can envision the boys wreaking havoc for Duke’s primary ball handlers, Grayson Allen and Trevon Duval. Jeff Dowtin will ball up, “Batman and Batman” will come out to play, and Danny Hurley will inspire his team. It is also worth noting that Duke lost last year as a 2 seed to the 7-seeded South Carolina, and over the last three NCAA Tournaments, 7 seeds are 5-3 vs. 2 seeds.
(1) Kansas vs. (3) Michigan State
Reasoning: The Spartans will look to avenge their 20-point loss to Kansas in last year’s Round of 32; meanwhile, the Jayhawks will attempt to beat a 3 seed in the Elite 8 this time around. Michigan State will win this one because they are first overall in my spreadsheet and are the best assist team in the country, the fifth in 3PT%, and the eighth in rebounding. In addition, Kansas is 181st in rebounds per game and struggles from the foul line (232nd place), which will be crucial in this close game.
Midwest Region Elite Eight: Michigan State over Kansas
West Region
First Round Upsets: 3
(8) Missouri over (9) Florida State
Reasoning: Yup, another case where the outcome shouldn’t be considered an upset. Florida State is inconsistent and does not have a go-to player. On the other hand, Missouri has Michael Porter Jr.
(12) South Dakota State over (5) Ohio State
Reasoning: Mike Daum averaged the 6th most points per game in all of Division 1 and could be an NBA player soon. Amazingly, the Jackrabbits are 8th out of 68 in my spreadsheet, the only 12+ seed in the top 20! The Buckeyes, meanwhile, are too reliant on Keita Bates-Diop and Jae’Sean Tate.
(10) Providence over (7) Texas A&M
Reasoning: Providence had a strong Big East Tournament showing, while the Aggies did not live up to expectations in the SEC. Rhode Island teams go 2-0 in the Round of 64.
Interesting Potential Matchups: 3
(1) Xavier vs. (8) Missouri
Reasoning: Michael Porter Jr. is ready to show the world that he is 100% healthy. Behind him and some timely three point shots from others, Missouri is poised to eliminate the first 1 seed of the Tournament in Xavier, who will be looking ahead to a potential rematch against Gonzaga.
(3) Michigan vs. (6) Houston
Reasoning: Both teams have played well entering the tournament, and each is led by a lethal scorer in Rob Gray for Houston and Mo Wagner for the Wolverines. Plus, the red vs. yellow uniforms will be eye-pleasing. Michigan wins.
(2) North Carolina vs. (3) Michigan
Reasoning: This potential game will feature two similar big men in Mo Wagner and Luke Maye, along with key versatile players Duncan Robinson and Theo Pinson. At this point, Michigan will have won about 100 games in a row, and with the Tar Heels thinking about a potential championship game rematch vs. Gonzaga, they will fall to Michigan.
West Region Elite Eight: Gonzaga over Michigan
Championship Game Prediction:
Virginia and Villanova will defeat Gonzaga and Michigan State (respectively) in the Final Four, which will set up another 1 vs. 1 seed in the championship. This game will feature the two most complete, consistent teams in the country. Villanova will beat Virginia and cut down the nets in San Antonio because the Cavs will be able to penetrate and kick out to shooters vs. UVA’s packline defense. Virginia should also have no problem limiting the production from behind the arc from Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome, and Devon Hall.
Good luck to all with their bracket(s) this year, and go URI!
Written by Austin Barach, Concord MA
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