The Houston Rockets have been obsessed with knocking off the Warriors all season. They traded away roughly half their roster to acquire Chris Paul, gradually assembled a surplus of versatile wings, and developed Clint Capela into one of the Association’s better centers. With Golden State, NBA champs in two of the last three seasons, coming into town on Monday night for the much anticipated Western Conference Finals, the Rockets’ highly-touted team construction will be put to the ultimate test.
These two teams have been the best in the league all year long. In the regular season, they were the two best teams in offensive rating and eFG% while also ranking top-10 in defensive rating. Thus far in the playoffs, the Rockets have boasted the top-ranked offensive rating and the Warriors have led the league in defensive rating. In fact, they are--by a landslide--the top two playoff teams in terms of net rating (offensive minus defensive). So what’s going to give? Who’s going to knock down the big shots? What are some of the most intriguing individual matchups? I’ll be analyzing this possibly revolutionary series through the lens of six key players:
Stephen Curry
From the eye test, it seemed as if Curry was not 100% healthy in the Pelicans series. But regardless of health, he must protect the basketball better in the final minutes of the game. He’s one of the best players in the world and has changed the way everyone plays the game, from elementary school kids to pros, so there obviously aren’t too many flaws in his game. But in Games 2 and 5 in the NOLA series, he coughed up the ball a few times towards the end, making the final scores appear closer than what the game really indicated. From each of the last three seasons, regular and post, with his team ahead and fewer than 3 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter, here’s how many turnovers Curry has committed:
14-15: 6 TO’s (2 against Rockets)
15-16: 11 TO’s (this was his unanimous MVP season, for reference)
16-17: 9 TO’s (1 against Rockets)
So far this season, despite missing a total of 37 games, he has turned the ball over just 6 times under these conditions, but 3 came in the Pelicans series. If he’s not 100% healthy and is coming off a series in which he displayed an unusual habit, it really makes me question how effective he’ll be if and when the Warriors are up in the final minutes with physical defenders like Chris Paul, P.J. Tucker, and Trevor Ariza draped all over him. However, Curry might also be challenged by the defensive emergence of Clint Capela, who figures to guard Curry on switches from ball screens. We all know how special Curry is with a big covering him, but Capela was locking down Jazz players on the perimeter last series (*cough cough* Joe Ingles). And although that wingspan and energy may give Curry some issues offensively, he could also be challenged on the defensive end. Coach Steve Kerr will probably hide him on someone--like he always does when the Warriors play a team with an elite guard--not named Harden or Paul, but the Rockets possess several play-making wings in Ariza, Gordon, Green, and Tucker, who can give the Warriors’ help defense some difficulty. If Steph can hold his own on defense and figure out Capela (and potentially his late-game TO issues) on offense, then the Warriors will have a major advantage.
Clint Capela
As mentioned, this kid had some stellar perimeter defense sequences last series, but his usual shot-blocking, shot-altering, and defensive rebounding skills were prominent as well in that series. Frankly, if the Rockets want to win this series, they need another high-energy defensive performance from him because not only can Golden State finish well around the rim, but Capela is more engaged offensively when he’s active defensively. Whenever he grabs a board or swats a shot, it always seems like he sets a screen for Harden or Paul with more emphasis as he rolls hard to the rim for an alley-oop. The bottom line is that he must be aggressive (not pull a KAT) on defense to generate more quality looks for himself and others on offense, and with the potential for this series to go big-less for extended stretches, his play when he is on the court will be even more important. For the Rockets, he absolutely has to disrupt the Warriors’ rhythm.
Kevin Durant and Chris Paul
The Warriors acquired Durant to take down the Cavs; the Rockets acquired Paul in the hopes that he would help knock off the Warriors. Well, here it is--to me, each one of these guys has demonstrated the ability to take over a basketball game, and they’ve both been doing it for many years. When their team needs them to single-handedly win a game, they can deliver. Coming off a blowout loss in Game 3 to New Orleans, Durant locked in defensively from the Game 4 opening tip-off and activated his I’m-going-to-score-on-you-and-there’s-nothing-you-can-do-about-it attitude on offense. He scored 38 points in that Game 4, a game in which the Warriors needed to reassert their control over the series. Paul, meanwhile, for all his postseason failures in the past, came up huge in Houston’s pivotal Game 4 in Utah. Down the stretch of that game, he commanded the ball and scored 27 points to lead his team to a 3-1 series lead. Then, he dropped 41 points to close it out in Game 5.
James Harden
LeBron is unbelievably good, but Harden will win MVP this season. Of course, a large portion of Harden’s game is using an art form known as “foul hunting.” When he’s getting the calls, he’s money, but when he’s not, he goes into his complaining bit with the officials until the next commercial break. In short, when the refs don’t give Harden the calls he expects, it throws off Houston’s offensive rhythm and underrated defense. In this series, his team can’t afford him to start blabbering to the refs if they don’t give him a call because the Warriors will take advantage of it with a fast break and nail a 3-pointer. Furthermore, Harden has become the master of the lull-you-to-sleep isolation, as it almost always results in a layup, a wide open shot for a teammate, or a stepback J. Although this is another strategy of his, the Rockets’ best play has come when they’re swinging the ball and creating lanes to drive and kick out for wide open corner 3’s. Remember when I talked about how Capela thrives when he sets a screen for Harden and rolls to the hoop with purpose? That’s also when Houston is at its best. But most important for the Rockets and Harden will be how much of a leader he’ll be in this series. For a team that has been constructed strictly so that it could beat the Warriors, Harden’s teammates--and frankly his city--has looked to him in times of trouble this season. A great way to show leadership is, of course, playing defense. Just look at the Celtics: When their defensive energy is high, everyone is playing with confidence; it’s a contagious thing. Finally, in the scenario that this goes to a Game 6 or 7 and all else fails, Harden might need to pull off a 45+ night to knock off the reigning champs.
Draymond Green
Although Capela, Durant, and Harden are all pivotal factors, Draymond Green is unquestionably the X factor. Simply put, he is the engine of the Warriors--he pushes the ball ahead to ignite a fast break, barks at anybody and everybody not affiliated with the Warriors, and gives Golden State its psychological edge. But in this series, I wonder if a guy like P.J. Tucker, a gritty, hard-nosed veteran who can talk some trash of his own, will get inside Draymond’s head or find a way to mess with anyone else on the Warriors roster. It’s a long shot, but if Tucker--or someone else--can make the Warriors feel mentally uncomfortable, the Rockets could expose them. Draymond needs to play his role as the psychological aggressor once more.
Clearly, these aren’t the only keys in this series. It would be good for the Rockets if Capela played big, Chris Paul took over a crucial game, and Harden played in the rhythm of the offense, but other guys like Aaron Gordon and Gerald Green can catch fire and potentially steal a contest on the road. Conversely, it would be good for Golden State if Curry played at the elite level he’s capable of, Durant could get into his unguardable mentality for an entire game, and Green instigated some drama, but Klay Thompson, as we’ve seen before, can light it up from beyond the arc and swing a series back in the Warriors’ favor.
Ultimately, I think that Houston can win this in 7 games, but I’m predicting that the Warriors win in 6. Golden State has looked bored at moments this season, but now is the time where they’ll unleash and go into that extra gear. Though I think the Rockets will take Game 1, the Warriors’ “Hamptons 5” will be too much for Houston to handle. When that lineup gets rolling (averaging 127.6 points per 100 possessions in the regular season), I’m not sure there’s anything the opposition can do to stop it.
(Stats via Second Spectrum, Cleaning the Glass, ESPN; Curry TO’s via Basketball Reference)
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