Through the first four days of the NBA Playoffs, seven games have been played in four different Eastern Conference series. The Raptors actually won a Game 1, Joel Embiid is tired of being injured, and Scary Terry has finally become a nationwide sensation as he obliterates Drew--I mean Eric--Bledsoe on and off the floor. Yet with questions looming large around LeBron James and the Cavaliers’ ability to play well, which team is now most likely to come of the East?
Right off the bat, there are some teams that can easily be eliminated from this discussion: The Wizards are completely disorganized, the Bucks have received horrendous performances from the bench, the Heat have no shot to make The Finals with Hassan Whiteside off in space, and the Pacers don’t have the experience or offensive consistency around Oladipo to make a long postseason run. This narrows the field of Eastern Conference Finals candidates to four: Cavs, 76ers, Celtics, and Raptors.
Cleveland
Entering the 2018 postseason, many predicted Cleveland to win the East with the simple reasoning that “LeBron James in the playoffs.” While this is a worthy justification (LeBron has been to The Finals in seven consecutive seasons), it’s also worth considering that this is his worst team in that span. With Miami, he had Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, and with Cleveland, he had Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving. Obviously, Irving is with the Celtics now, which means that James’ supporting cast outside of Love is not that impressive this time around. Consequently, the Cavaliers’ team chemistry has been minimal throughout the entire season, as Irving played an important role in not only gelling the team but also encouraging the Cavs to play with looseness--handshakes are far less frequent, the tension between LeBron and Tyronn Lue is heightened, and J.R. Smith and Tristan Thompson have both been in hot water with the media. Though they should still beat the Pacers, the Cavs’ lack of cohesiveness has resulted in terrible team defense (25th in opponent TO%, 29th in defensive rating, last in opponent eFG%), further supporting the notion that they won’t make this year’s Finals.
Philadelphia
Following a blowout victory over the Heat in Game 1, the Philadelphia 76ers fell victim to a vintage D-Wade performance and an effective adjustment from Miami head coach, Erik Spoelstra, in Game 2. Wade poured in 28 points on 11-16 shooting, including a dagger over Ben Simmons to seal the ever-important road win. Another key factor for Miami was having guys like James Johnson and Justise Winslow apply ball pressure on Simmons; he still managed to put up 24 points, but the adjustment did accomplish something: With diminished space for Simmons to attack downhill, less defensive focus was required in the paint and was consequently directed towards the perimeter. Simmons, who averaged 8.2 assists per game in the regular season (5th-best in the NBA), had 14 assists in Game 1 but only 8 in Game 2. With more focus on closing out three-point shots, Miami’s defense led Philly to shoot just 19.4% from beyond the arc in Game 2 as opposed to 64.3% in Game 1. For a team that’s in unfamiliar territory (losing for the first time since before March Madness began), it’ll be fascinating to see how the Sixers choose to counter this adjustment from the Heat and potentially other opponents (*cough* Brad Stevens).
Boston
Per Chris Forsberg, Celtics players missed 216 combined games in the regular season due to injury, yet they’ve demonstrated exceptional grit and perseverance thus far in the playoffs (on their way to a 2-0 start). Entering the postseason, I thought that Brad Stevens was the biggest weapon on the team because of all the injuries, but the young guns have risen to the occasion. After a triumphant overtime win on Sunday in which Al Horford, Terry Rozier, Marcus Morris, Jaylen Brown, and Jayson Tatum combined to score 107 of the team’s 113 points, Boston put together a wonderfully efficient offensive effort on Tuesday night to gain control of the series 2-0. Brown and Rozier combined for 53 points on 20-36 shooting, Brown became the youngest player in Celtics franchise history to score 30 points in a playoff game, and Rozier became Eric Bledsoe’s daddy. Unfortunately for the Celtics, some of their success can be attributed to the favorable matchup; Milwaukee changed its head coach midway through the season and hasn’t been able to generate a functioning second unit since. When Jason Terry is logging 18 minutes in a one-possession Game 1 and Jabari Parker has as many personal fouls as points in the series (2 and 2), it’s pretty apparent that the Celtics’ opponent isn’t so hot. Plus, in the scenario that the C’s play Philadelphia or perhaps even Toronto in the next rounds, I don’t see Boston winning a road game in either of those series. This young Celtics squad has struggled in both Philly and Toronto, and their lack of proven postseason scoring will eventually catch up to them.
Toronto
The Toronto Raptors are certainly the favorites out of the East, and not just because of flaws in each of the other squads--Toronto is exceptional in its own right. Lowry and DeRozan make up a terrific starting backcourt, but the Raptors’ overall depth is what separates them from the rest of field in the East. In the regular season, they had 11 players who averaged at least 5 PPG and 15 MPG, and although it’s common for coaches to shrink their rotation for the playoffs, Dwane Casey played 10 and 11 players for at least 5 minutes in Games 1 and 2 vs. the Wiz. What I like even more about their depth is how each player has accepted his specific role, but when Lowry and DeRozan aren’t on (such as in Game 1), the role players fill the gaps and wind up having a significant impact on the win. This sort of strength in numbers has catapulted Toronto into the top 6 in the NBA in offensive rating, defensive rating, eFG%, and opponent eFG%, four of the most important statistical categories in the sport.
(Stats via Cleaning the Glass, ESPN, and NBA.com)
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